241
FXUS64 KHUN 020001
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
701 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
STRATUS CLOUDS THAT COVERED MUCH OF THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAVE
FINALLY MIXED OUT AS STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING DOMINATED.
THE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE. A FEW SHORT-LIVED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT HAVE
DISSIPATED THANKS TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVING IN AT THE MID
LEVELS. HOWEVER, FURTHER SURFACE HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT WILL HELP MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE
LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WET MICROBURST OUTFLOW WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.
A THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE GO
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT NW FLOW OF DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WE GO TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH MID TO
LATE WEEK, JUST IN TIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES.
IN SHORT, WHAT THIS WILL MEAN WILL BE DRY WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, INCLUDING FIREWORKS! AMPLE SUNSHINE PROVIDED FROM THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE (CLEAR SKY) FROM THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS -- AND POTENTIALLY THE MID 90S IN SOME AREAS ON THE
FRIDAY (4TH OF JULY). THE COMBINATION OF SOME RISING DEWPOINTS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME COULD CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO THE
100 DEGREE MARK BY INDEPENDENCE DAY. THUS, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE HEAT AND REVIEW HEAT SAFETY RULES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD EAST INTO
THIS WEEKEND, SPANNING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL YIELD
GRADUAL HEATING EACH DAY INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN AND
WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AT
THIS TIME, NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY OR SATURDAY,
BUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LOW CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED TO THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL RECENTLY. NO FOG WAS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME BUT WE WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT IN CASE THIS BECOMES AN
ISSUE. LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...25
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