219
FXUS64 KHUN 042336
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A GOOD EVENING/NIGHT OF GRILLING,
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO NEAR THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED HIGHS TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 93 AND 96 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AT OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST, AND TEMPERATURES AT FIREWORK TIME
WILL BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE, WEAKENING IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO HOLD ONTO KEEPING US DRY AND HOT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY, WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION (LOW CHANCES OF ~20%) AND A COLD FRONT WILL START TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY THAT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER MID WEEK.
HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S (VALLEYS)
TO LOWER 90S (ELSEWHERE) WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70
DEGREES. WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME, HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. AS FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, SEEMS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105, HOWEVER TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
REGARDLESS, HEAT SAFETY WILL REMAIN IMPORTANT FOR EVERYONE. ENJOY
YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY BY NEVER
LEAVING PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES, DRINK WATER AND SEEK SHADE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN JUST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND BEGIN BUILDING MORE OVER THE GULF TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING TO 40-60% MAINLY FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CHANCES WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY WHEN IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REMAIN BETWEEN 100 AND 105 EACH
DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS SOME QUESTION IF
AN ISOLATED STORM COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP
TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...KTW
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