018
FXUS64 KHUN 290525
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVER FAR NW AL THIS EVENING BUT HAVE
REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THESE STORMS ARE GENERALLY WEAKENING
AS THEY HEAD SOUTH BUT ARE STILL PRODUCING LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME.
THE HEAVY RAIN OVER NW AL COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT
AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL FOG IN AND AROUND RIVER VALLEYS. OTHERWISE
LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND TEMPS FALLING TO THE
MID 70S.
TUESDAY IS ON TAP TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS STACKED JUST TO OUR WEST AND KEEPS BOTH THE HEAT
AND MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES AND WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING FOR THOSE WITHOUT PROPER COOLING AND HYDRATION. AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AL AS WELL AS LINCOLN AND MOORE COUNTIES IN TN UNTIL 9
PM TUESDAY. THE HIGHER TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO YIELD CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000 TO POTENTIALLY HIGHER THAT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS/MICROBURSTS. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE 20-30% PROBABILITIES, BUT
WHAT THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND POTENTIALLY HAIL. PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 2-2.2" WILL ALSO SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW TO MOVE
OR MULTIPLE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION.
BOTTOM LINE, THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF HAZARDS TUESDAY AND IT WILL
BE BEST TO STAY INDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. IF YOU HAVE TO BE
OUTSIDE FOR ANY DURATION, BE SURE TO WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT CLOTHING,
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN AREAS WITH AIR CONDITIONING, AND STAY
HYDRATED. BE SURE TO CHECK ON FAMILY/FRIENDS THAT MAY BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT AND ENSURE OUTDOOR PETS AND LIVESTOCK
HAVE ACCESS TO COOL SHELTER AND PLENTY OF WATER.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME WITH VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS HEATING INTO THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S. THUS MORE INSTANCES OF HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO
THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA IS
FORECAST AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR HOW WIDESPREAD
THIS HEAT WILL BE IS THAT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING WHAT
LOCATIONS WILL MAKE IT ABOVE THE 105 DEGREE HEAT INDEX MARK.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHED FARTHER TO THE WEST AND WE COME
UNDER MORE OF AN INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WHILE INVERSELY INCREASING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW THE 105 DEGREE MARK AND THEREFORE IT DOES NOT
APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED PAST WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, A MUCH NEEDED RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY!
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER ON ITS HEELS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, SYNOPTIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THIS SECOND TROUGH THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING
UP BY SUNDAY. OVERALL, WITH THIS PATTERN, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY BELOW
30 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPTICK
IN SHEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. MODEL
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED, BUT AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH, ANY STRONG STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS.
WITH THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO COME A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN
COMPARED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES REACHING AROUND
110 DEGREES WE SAW TODAY (MONDAY, JULY 28TH) AT HUNTSVILLE AND
MUSCLE SHOALS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO MERELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY THEN DECREASE TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
BY SUNDAY! FURTHERMORE, LOWS DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ENJOY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WHILE THEY LAST!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED THE KMSL TERMINAL FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. HAVE KEPT MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT HOUR TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
AT THE KHSV TERMINAL BARRING ANY OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT, WHICH
RIGHT NOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY AT MSL GIVEN THE ONGOING RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND SOME
COULD BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30
GROUPS AT BOTH TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO HIGHLIGHT THE
PERIOD OF GREATEST RISK.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALZ001>007.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ008>010-016.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TNZ076-096.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ097.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
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