136
FXUS64 KHUN 290851
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
351 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
FIRST AND FOREMOST: HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE. EVERYONE SHOULD BE TAKING PRECAUTIONS SUCH AS
STAYING HYDRATED, TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS WHILE OUTDOORS, AND
WEARING LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING. THOSE WHO ARE VULNERABLE, SUCH AS
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING OR WATER, WILL
BE FACING LIFE- THREATENING CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
105-112. IN AREAS WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 110+
DEGREES, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 11
AM CT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 9 PM CT. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 (EXCLUDING CULLMAN
COUNTY). THERE IS A CHANCE THIS COULD BE EXPANDED AND/OR EXTENDED
IN FUTURE UPDATES. IN CULLMAN COUNTY AS WELL AS OUR COUNTIES EAST
OF I-65, OUR HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 9 PM CT. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE THIS GETS EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES.
A SECONDARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE A LOW END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
WITH LIMITED COVERAGE/CHANCES (20-30%). SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
(2000 J/KG OF SFC CAPE WITH ~900 J/KG OF DCAPE) COUPLED WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ANY STORMS THAT
FORM. IN ADDITION TO THIS, PWATS IN THE 1.8-2" RANGE (NEARING OR
EXCEEDING SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PER BMX) AS WELL AS SLOW MOVING
STORMS (~10 KTS) WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND RESULTANT
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IF
STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN DUE TO BACKBUILDING, WHICH THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR, THEN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF THESE THREATS, WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. HIGHEST CHANCES OF FOG
REMAIN IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY (MONDAY) AS WELL
AS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME WITH VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS HEATING INTO THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S. THUS MORE INSTANCES OF HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO
THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA IS
FORECAST AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR HOW WIDESPREAD
THIS HEAT WILL BE IS THAT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING WHAT
LOCATIONS WILL MAKE IT ABOVE THE 105 DEGREE HEAT INDEX MARK.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHED FARTHER TO THE WEST AND WE COME
UNDER MORE OF AN INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WHILE INVERSELY INCREASING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW THE 105 DEGREE MARK AND THEREFORE IT DOES NOT
APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED PAST WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, A MUCH NEEDED RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY!
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER ON ITS HEELS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, SYNOPTIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THIS SECOND TROUGH THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING
UP BY SUNDAY. OVERALL, WITH THIS PATTERN, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY BELOW
30 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPTICK
IN SHEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. MODEL
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED, BUT AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH, ANY STRONG STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS.
WITH THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO COME A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN
COMPARED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES REACHING AROUND
110 DEGREES WE SAW TODAY (MONDAY, JULY 28TH) AT HUNTSVILLE AND
MUSCLE SHOALS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO MERELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY THEN DECREASE TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
BY SUNDAY! FURTHERMORE, LOWS DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ENJOY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WHILE THEY LAST!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DUE TO VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS FROM PATCHY FOG FORMATION BETWEEN 07Z-13Z. OTHERWISE,
LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LIMITED, THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF PACKAGE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALZ001>007.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ008>010-016.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TNZ076-096.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ097.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC
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