154
FXUS64 KHUN 291558
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1058 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
THE 598 DM 500-MB RIDGE IS STILL SITTING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO
THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S, TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST DANGEROUS HEAT
DAY SO FAR THIS SUMMER. HEAT INDICES OVER 110 ARE ANTICIPATED
ALONG I-65 AND WESTWARD WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING OVER 105
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. CURRENT EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND
HEAT ADVISORY PRODUCTS APPROPRIATELY MESSAGE THE HEAT IMPACTS TO
THE AREA TODAY.
ASIDE FROM HEAT, FOCUS IS ALSO NEEDED ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
ISOLATED STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE LAID REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL LIKELY BE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION INITIATION
THIS AFTERNOON. ONE IS DRAPED FROM WINCHESTER, TN DOWN THROUGH
DOUGLAS, AL WHERE AN EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM TRACKED. AN
ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW IS LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH MADISON AND MORGAN
COUNTIES FROM ANOTHER SHOWER. DESPITE THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE, DCAPE
VALUES PEAK ABOVE 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, INDICATING A HIGH
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. ESPECIALLY WITH PWAT
VALUES OVER 2" ACROSS THE REGION, HYDROMETEOR LOADING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH ARE
THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT, ON TOP OF INTENSE RAIN RATES.
MOST OF THE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL WANE AROUND 7-8 PM
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY SHELTERED VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS TAKING A LITTLE SLOWER TO SHIFT
WESTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US, THIS
MEANS A FEW DAYS OF AN OVERLAP IN WEATHER REGIME WITH HAZARDOUS
HEAT DURING THE DAYTIME AND THEN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING
AROUND THE RIDGE. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
WHOLE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT 9 PM. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULDN'T
GET THE CHANCE TO REACH 110 AGAIN BEFORE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION IMPACTS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AREAS REACHING
110 CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH THURSDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR, A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH (WHERE IT HAS
BEEN STALLED FOR SEVERAL DAYS) SHOULD BRING AN EVEN HIGHER
COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH 60-80% CHANCES FOR STORMS. FOR NOW, THE HEAT
ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY ON
THE TABLE FOR FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
BY FRIDAY, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BECOME DOMINANT IN OUR
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, RESULTING IN A WELCOME CHANGE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S, PERHAPS A FEW
AREAS REACHING 90. WHAT A SAD SENTENCE, TO BE REJOICING HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 80S. THE COLD FRONT STEADILY APPROACHING AND ON OUR
DOORSTEP, IF NOT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA, ON FRIDAY WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
BELEAGUERED WITH RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, CONCERNS WILL
START TO DEVELOP FOR FLOODING IF THE SAME AREAS ARE RECEIVING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS. WIDESPREAD, WE'RE LOOKING AT 0.5-1.5" OF
RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, A MUCH NEEDED RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY!
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER ON ITS HEELS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, SYNOPTIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THIS SECOND TROUGH THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING
UP BY SUNDAY. OVERALL, WITH THIS PATTERN, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY BELOW
30 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPTICK
IN SHEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. MODEL
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED, BUT AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH, ANY STRONG STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS.
WITH THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO COME A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN
COMPARED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES REACHING AROUND
110 DEGREES WE SAW TODAY (MONDAY, JULY 28TH) AT HUNTSVILLE AND
MUSCLE SHOALS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO MERELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY THEN DECREASE TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
BY SUNDAY! FURTHERMORE, LOWS DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ENJOY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WHILE THEY LAST!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV. HOWEVER, AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IF
THUNDERSTORMS FORM NEAR THE SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN FORMATION AND
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE OFFICIAL TAF PACKAGE.
ADDITIONALLY, A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, HAVE NOT INCLUDED THAT WITH THIS
UPDATE AS UNSURE OF HOW CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT COVERAGE OF FOG.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>007.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ALZ001>007.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ008>010-016.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TNZ076-096.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ097.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC
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