272
FXUS64 KHUN 292358
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS OF THE MID AFTERNOON,
WITH MANY HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO AND ABOVE 110 DEGREES. GIVEN
THE WIDER EXPANSE OF THE HEAT, WE HAVE EXPANDED THE REST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE ALABAMA TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING (JACKSON,
MARSHALL, DEKALB, AND CULLMAN COUNTIES) EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9 PM CDT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES FROM 105 TO 113
DEGREES. WITH SUCH HEAT, WE URGE AREA RESIDENTS TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE MEASURES TO AVOID HEAT RELATED AILMENTS. THOSE
OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SHADING
OR GO INTO AN AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT. DO NOT LEAVE PEOPLE OR
PETS IN VEHICLES!
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT HAVE CREATED RATHER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. DESPITE A WARM
MID TROPOSPHERE THAT NORMALLY CAPS CONVECTION FROM FORMING; HIGH
CAPE VALUES TO 1500-3000 J/KG, DCAPES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG, AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AROUND 2", SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FORM. INVERT-V SOUNDING PROFILES IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN STORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, AKA MICROBURST
LIKE. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO A RISK.
CONVECTION THAT FORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN AS WE GO INTO THE MID AND
LATE EVENING. ANOTHER MUGGY, STUFFY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO
FORM IN/NEAR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED GREATER THAN 1/10 OF A INCH
OF RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS TAKING A LITTLE SLOWER TO SHIFT
WESTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US, THIS
MEANS A FEW DAYS OF AN OVERLAP IN WEATHER REGIME WITH HAZARDOUS
HEAT DURING THE DAYTIME AND THEN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING
AROUND THE RIDGE. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
WHOLE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT 9 PM. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULDN'T
GET THE CHANCE TO REACH 110 AGAIN BEFORE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION IMPACTS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AREAS REACHING
110 CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH THURSDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR, A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH (WHERE IT HAS
BEEN STALLED FOR SEVERAL DAYS) SHOULD BRING AN EVEN HIGHER
COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH 60-80% CHANCES FOR STORMS. FOR NOW, THE HEAT
ADVISORY WAS NOT EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY ON
THE TABLE FOR FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
BY FRIDAY, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BECOME DOMINANT IN OUR
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, RESULTING IN A WELCOME CHANGE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S, PERHAPS A FEW
AREAS REACHING 90. WHAT A SAD SENTENCE, TO BE REJOICING HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 80S. THE COLD FRONT STEADILY APPROACHING AND ON OUR
DOORSTEP, IF NOT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA, ON FRIDAY WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
BELEAGUERED WITH RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, CONCERNS WILL
START TO DEVELOP FOR FLOODING IF THE SAME AREAS ARE RECEIVING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS. WIDESPREAD, WE'RE LOOKING AT 0.5-1.5" OF
RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD, A MUCH NEEDED RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY!
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER ON ITS HEELS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, SYNOPTIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THIS SECOND TROUGH THROUGH
MONDAY AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING
UP BY SUNDAY. OVERALL, WITH THIS PATTERN, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY BELOW
30 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPTICK
IN SHEAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. MODEL
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED, BUT AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH, ANY STRONG STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS.
WITH THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO COME A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN
COMPARED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES REACHING AROUND
110 DEGREES WE SAW TODAY (MONDAY, JULY 28TH) AT HUNTSVILLE AND
MUSCLE SHOALS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO MERELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY THEN DECREASE TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
BY SUNDAY! FURTHERMORE, LOWS DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ENJOY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WHILE THEY LAST!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTIONS BEING A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING AND THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN USED TO HIGHLIGHT THE WINDOW
FOR THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE STORMS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ097.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
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