070
FXUS64 KHUN 300350
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1050 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
IT HAS BEEN A VERY HOT DAY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS BREAKING THE 110 HEAT INDEX MARK EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM, AND A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 9 PM
WEDNESDAY.
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS STAYED MOSTLY VOID OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS
OVERNIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY
IN AND AROUND RIVER VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
RECENT RAINFALL. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ON WEDNESDAY AS AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES RISE TO THE 103-108 DEGREE RANGE, BUT AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY CURVE THESE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A 20-50% CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS
WEST OF I-65 WITH HIGHER (60-80%) CHANCES EASTWARD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS/MICROBURSTS. WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 2-2.2" RANGE, THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FAIRLY SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK IS LOW, LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR. BE SURE TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND STAY
HYDRATED IF SPENDING TIME OR WORKING OUTDOORS AND NEVER LEAVE
PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES!
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
UNFORTUNATELY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF AN
INFLUENCE ON WEATHER HERE LOCALLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT EARLIER
IN THE WEEK, BUT WE PROMISE RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. FIRST, WE WILL
HAVE TO ENDURE ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT INDICES OVER THE 100 DEGREE
MARK. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY A FEW URBAN LOCATIONS COULD REACH
THAT HIGH ON FRIDAY AS WELL, BUT WE HAVE MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THAT AT THIS POINT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES FARTHER WEST,
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US, THE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS OVERLAP WILL FAVOR BOTH THE
CONTINUATION OF DANGEROUS HEAT AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS BUT A
MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE DANGEROUS HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY VARY DEPENDING ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE STORMS OCCUR EACH DAY, BUT A GIVEN LOCATION MAY SEE
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 0.5-2" OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US BY
THE WEEKEND, BUT ANOTHER WILL BE ON ITS HEELS FOR EARLY WEEK.
MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS DURING THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH MAY SET UP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR
SUNDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL COMPRISE OF DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND THEN TAPERING
OFF A BIT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS. THUS, SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE MILD THAN WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY, WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH, BY TUESDAY, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TOUCH
WARMER. SO, HANG IN THERE, SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS ON ITS
WAY!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTIONS BEING A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING AND THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN USED TO HIGHLIGHT THE WINDOW
FOR THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE STORMS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
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