154
FXUS64 KHUN 301100
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REMAINS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR
INCREASED HEAT CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO
105-109. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDICES OVER 105 DEGREES REMAIN
ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, HOWEVER, A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR
THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT. HEAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OUR PRIMARY CONCERN, AS IT HAS BEEN THROUGHOUT THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO STAY HYDRATED, TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IF OUTDOORS, AND WEAR LIGHT-COLORED, LIGHTWEIGHT
CLOTHING.
SLIGHT RELIEF FROM HEAT MAY COME FROM LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS IN NE AL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, WHERE MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) ARE
FORECAST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK SUFFICIENT (UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG) COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8-9
C/KM) TO SUPPORT A GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ADDITIONALLY,
PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.2" RANGE, WHICH IS NEAR OR EXCEEDING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PER BMX, WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND A SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, HOWEVER, HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED CHANCES IN ADDITION TO AT LEAST PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
OTHERWISE, THIS MORNING WILL BE CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER CHANCES OF FOG REMAIN ALONG LARGE BODIES
OF WATER AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. ANY FOG
THAT DOES FORM WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
UNFORTUNATELY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF AN
INFLUENCE ON WEATHER HERE LOCALLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT EARLIER
IN THE WEEK, BUT WE PROMISE RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. FIRST, WE WILL
HAVE TO ENDURE ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT INDICES OVER THE 100 DEGREE
MARK. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY A FEW URBAN LOCATIONS COULD REACH
THAT HIGH ON FRIDAY AS WELL, BUT WE HAVE MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THAT AT THIS POINT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES FARTHER WEST,
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US, THE HIGHER MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS OVERLAP WILL FAVOR BOTH THE
CONTINUATION OF DANGEROUS HEAT AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS BUT A
MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE DANGEROUS HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY VARY DEPENDING ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE STORMS OCCUR EACH DAY, BUT A GIVEN LOCATION MAY SEE
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 0.5-2" OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US BY
THE WEEKEND, BUT ANOTHER WILL BE ON ITS HEELS FOR EARLY WEEK.
MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS DURING THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH MAY SET UP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR
SUNDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL COMPRISE OF DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND THEN TAPERING
OFF A BIT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS. THUS, SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE MILD THAN WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY, WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH, BY TUESDAY, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TOUCH
WARMER. SO, HANG IN THERE, SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS ON ITS
WAY!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, LOW TO MEDIUM
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
WHICH COULD CAUSE DECREASED VISIBILITIES AT BOTH SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN THIS OCCURRING AT KHSV, THEREFORE, A PROB30 GROUP HAS
CONTINUED TO BE ADDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC
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