835
FXUS64 KHUN 301602
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1102 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
PERSISTENT RIDGING MAINTAINS ITS GRASP ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AS TEMPERATURES CROSS THE THRESHOLD FROM THE MID 80S INTO THE
UPPER 80S AS OF 10 AM. THE DELAY IN DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE STEEP DIURNAL CURVE THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON MIXING ON TOP OF AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 110 FOR AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING.
OF NOTE FOR THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION, BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HEIGHTENED DCAPE
VALUES. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH. THERE IS A PW GRADIENT ACROSS
ROUGHLY I-65 TODAY WITH PWS CLOSER TO 2" IN NORTHEAST AL AND THEN
CLOSER TO 1.5" IN NORTHWEST AL. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES ARE
CLOSER TO 50-60% IN THE NORTHEAST AND 10-30% IN THE NORTHWEST.
ONCE CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
AS MUCH AS WE HAVE HOPED FOR A PATTERN SHIFT LATER THIS WEEK, IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT IS TAKING ITS SWEET TIME
TRANSLATING WESTWARD. AS A RESULT, THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED AN ADDITIONAL 24 HOURS UNTIL 9 PM ON THURSDAY FOR HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105-109 F. DIURNAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN, WITH NOT AS HIGH OF A CEILING FOR STRONG
STORMS AS TODAY. HOWEVER, THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, SIMILAR
TIMING TO TODAY, WHICH WOULD ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO HEAT UP
INTO THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD. TIMING THIS FRONT IS FAIRLY INCONSISTENT DEPENDING
ON WHICH GUIDANCE SOURCE IS REFERENCED. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN DESI INDICATES A 60% CHANCE THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY EVENING, BRINGING THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL THROUGH AT THAT TIME. THE OTHER 40% SHOWS THE FRONT
SLOWING A BIT AND MOVING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHICHEVER
WAY YOU ROLL THE DICE, THURSDAY SHOULD BE WETTER WITH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION (50-70% CHANCE), AND THEN WE COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MAYBE 90.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING
ANOTHER DAY OF 50-70% POPS. WE COOL OFF MORE ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S AND AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES PEAKING
BETWEEN 30-50%. THE LOWER END POPS IN THE RANGE WILL BE AREAS WEST
OF I-65, WHERE THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN LESS SHOWER COVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US BY
THE WEEKEND, BUT ANOTHER WILL BE ON ITS HEELS FOR EARLY WEEK.
MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS DURING THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH MAY SET UP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR
SUNDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL COMPRISE OF DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND THEN TAPERING
OFF A BIT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS. THUS, SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE MILD THAN WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY, WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH, BY TUESDAY, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TOUCH
WARMER. SO, HANG IN THERE, SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS ON ITS
WAY!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, LOW TO MEDIUM
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
WHICH COULD CAUSE DECREASED VISIBILITIES AT BOTH SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN THIS OCCURRING AT KHSV, THEREFORE, A PROB30 GROUP HAS
CONTINUED TO BE ADDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC
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