735
FXUS64 KHUN 310511
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1211 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
UPPER RIDGING THAT WAS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS THE PAST FEW
DAYS WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF MORE WEAKENING, AS A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER-48. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN THE UPPER RIDGE BEING DISPLACED OVER THE DESERT
SW AND NORTHERN MEXICO, AND FROM FLORIDA TO BERMUDA. THUS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A NOT AS HOT AND HUMID TREND IS EXPECTED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE IMPACTED PARTS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WERE TAKING
SLOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT HIGH STABILITY. A FEW OF OUR METAR
SITES RECEIVED A GOOD DOSE OF SOME WELL NEEDED RAINFALL, WITH THE
DECATUR AND FORT PAYNE AIRPORTS RECORDING NEARLY AN INCH. OTHER
SPOTS PROBABLY RECEIVED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOO, ESPECIALLY
PORTIONS OF CULLMAN COUNTY, AS WELL AS PARTS OF NW ALABAMA. AFTER
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT SOARED INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S (AND HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN THE UPPER 90S TO 109 DEGREES), 9 PM READINGS WERE
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
REMAINING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS WE GO INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE AS WE GO INTO OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN OF THURSDAY. FOG
FORMATION WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN AND NEAR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
GOOD DOSES OF RAINFALL. AN OTHERWISE MUGGY AND HUMID NIGHT IS
EXPECTED, AS LOW TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
IT LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF TOO MUCH HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WHICH
WARRANTS CONTINUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 90S, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID, TO AT TIMES UPPER 70S. THIS WILL GENERATE
MORE APPARENT HEAT WITH READINGS RISING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 107
DEGREES. THE ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT SHOULD BE MOST APPARENT IN AND
NEAR THE MORE URBAN SPOTS, BUT WE CANNOT RULE IT OUT ELSEWHERE,
ESPECIALLY WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE BOOSTED BY MOISTURE INFUSION
FROM RECENT RAIN.
THE HEATING OF THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL PRODUCE MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SURFACE BASED
CAPES RISE TO 1500-2500 J/KG WITH AN INVERT-V FORECAST SOUNDING, AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN 2", WILL RESULT IN
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GOING WITH THE BLENDS, THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE TO THE EAST, WITH A SOMEWHAT
LESSER CHANCES WEST.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BECOME MORE NOTICED AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTH FINALLY SWEEPS IN A NORTH TO SOUTH MANNER ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DEFINITELY SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION, WITH PRECIP
WATER AMOUNTS FALLING DOWN INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE. SHOWERS
SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
HEADS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL NOT BE AS HOT, RANGING IN THE MID/UPPER 80S, AND IN THE MID
80S SATURDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE A LOT MORE COMFORTABLE, AND
PROVIDE WELCOMED RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT. BUT POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN, GIVEN THAT THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING NOT SO
FAR AWAY NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. THUS WILL KEEP MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FRI/SAT
AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG IT WILL
PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN
FACT, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY BY
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED. AT THE SURFACE, AN
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WILL SET UP BY LATE WEEKEND, WITH A
STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE GULF COAST. THIS FRONT WILL
MEANDER OVER THE COAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS THEN POSSIBLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. HOW FAR NORTH THIS FRONT
GETS WILL BE SOMETHING WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. MOISTURE
LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH MODEL PWATS INCREASING FROM
1.3-1.4 INCHES SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO 1.6-1.8 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL, DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THE THEME AS
WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR MANY, PEAKING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW DUE TO BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH, AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY, THE BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS
COMPARED WITH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THUS, WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THAT
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS. REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KMSL AND KHSV. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING DUE TO FOG
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING POTENTIAL VISIBILITY DECREASES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC
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