718
FXUS64 KHUN 311051
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
551 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
WHILE THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS IT PROGRESSES
WESTWARD HAS BEEN REALIZED, THERE IS ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT WE HAVE
TO ENDURE BEFORE RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPERIENCED. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT FOR
ALL OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DUE TO HEAT INDICES UP TO 109 DEGREES.
WE CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO REMAIN HYDRATED, TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IF OUTDOORS, AND WEAR LIGHT-COLORED/LIGHTWEIGHT
CLOTHING. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT SHOULD ARRIVE IN SOME PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG WITH THREATS OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING. LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD DISSUADE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER, HOWEVER, THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY
FORECAST (UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG) IN ADDITION TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND "INVERTED V" SOUNDING PROFILES. ADDITIONALLY,
PWATS ARE IN THE 2-2.2" RANGE, WHICH IS NEARING OR EXCEEDING THE
90TH PERCENTILE OF SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PER BMX. REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE AND REMEMBER- WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
OTHERWISE, WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION
THIS MORNING. HIGHER CHANCES OF FOG REMAIN IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YESTERDAY, HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DISCOURAGE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. BE SURE TO USE CAUTION ON
YOUR MORNING COMMUTE. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BECOME MORE NOTICED AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTH FINALLY SWEEPS IN A NORTH TO SOUTH MANNER ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DEFINITELY SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION, WITH PRECIP
WATER AMOUNTS FALLING DOWN INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE. SHOWERS
SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
HEADS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL NOT BE AS HOT, RANGING IN THE MID/UPPER 80S, AND IN THE MID
80S SATURDAY. THESE READINGS WILL BE A LOT MORE COMFORTABLE, AND
PROVIDE WELCOMED RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT. BUT POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN, GIVEN THAT THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING NOT SO
FAR AWAY NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. THUS WILL KEEP MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FRI/SAT
AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG IT WILL
PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN
FACT, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY BY
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED. AT THE SURFACE, AN
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WILL SET UP BY LATE WEEKEND, WITH A
STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE GULF COAST. THIS FRONT WILL
MEANDER OVER THE COAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS THEN POSSIBLY SHIFT
BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. HOW FAR NORTH THIS FRONT
GETS WILL BE SOMETHING WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON. MOISTURE
LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH MODEL PWATS INCREASING FROM
1.3-1.4 INCHES SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO 1.6-1.8 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL, DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THE THEME AS
WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR MANY, PEAKING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW DUE TO BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH, AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY, THE BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS
COMPARED WITH EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THUS, WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THAT
COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS. REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV. HOWEVER, A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VISIBILITIES MAY
DECREASE AT THE SITES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...HC
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