463
FXUS64 KHUN 010328
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1028 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES HAVE LARGELY DWINDLED LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS IS DUE TO A CORRIDOR OF DRIER AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SOME SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO OUR WEST,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING MORE SOUTH ALONG A MOISTURE AND
GREATER INSTABILITY AXIS. THUS, LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR MAY FILTER INTO THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
ALABAMA UP INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND TOWARDS KNOXVILLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
MOVING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN FELL EARLIER
TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THOUGH, IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.
FOR FRIDAY, A FEW SUBTLE UPPER SHORTWAVES LOOK TO TRAVERSE THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS, ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH MAINTAINING ELEVATED MOISTURE (PWATS BETWEEN
1.8-2.0 INCHES), WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) ARE
THEREFORE FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAGER SHEAR, SO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FORECAST, THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY BECOME STRONG,
THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, DIPPING INTO
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES! IN ADDITION, ANTICIPATING THE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEYOND SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. FURTHERMORE, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. AGAIN, WITH BULK SHEAR NEAR OR
BELOW 20 KNOTS, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH, BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND! BY SUNDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MERELY
TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS THAT NIGHT IN THE
60S. ENJOY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WHILE THEY LAST BUT MAKE SURE
TO ALSO STAY WEATHER AWARE - WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
A DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE TIME WE START
A NEW WORK WEEK. UPPER RIDGING THAT IN PART PRODUCED VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS EARLIER THIS WEEK, BY MONDAY SHOULD BE SITUATED
OVER THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO, WHILE WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM EAST/CENTRAL CANADA TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
SETUP IN ITSELF GENERALLY MEANS COOLER CONDITIONS THAT A TROUGHING
PATTERN PRODUCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MON/TUE NEXT WEEK SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOW/MID 80S, AND WED/THU INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES MON-WED NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THESE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER THAN "NORMAL" READINGS OF 92/71
NEXT WED, AUG 6TH.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRAPED IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER ALONG THE
GULF COAST. DESPITE THE BOUNDARY BEING WELL TO OUR SOUTH, MOISTURE
FROM A VERY WARM GULF WILL SEEP NORTHWARD, AND BRING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON SOMEWHAT OF A DIURNAL RANGE
(HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOONS) NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY THU. DAY/NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND SOMEWHAT LOWER AT NIGHT. A MAXIMA OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TUESDAY SHOULD BRING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE VALLEY. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE
MOISTURE FEED SLACKENS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THIS TIME SHOULD
BE MORE DIFFUSE AS IT CREEPS NORTHWARD AS WE GO INTO THU.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
CONVECTION IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NE AL WAS MOVING EASTWARD
TOWARDS GA. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN TN TO
FAR NORTHERN MS, ACCOMPANYING A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE KMSL TERMINAL AROUND 01/03Z. GIVEN THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS CEASED OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, HAVE MAINTAINED A
LATER AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR THEM AT KHSV AFTER 05Z.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE GO INTO THE LATE NIGHT. THE
LATE NIGHT MAY SEE FOG FORMING OVER AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RECENT WETTING RAINFALL. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING, DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION, WITH MORE
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RSB
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