471
FXUS64 KHUN 010837
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
337 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW STRATUS/DENSE FOG HAS
FORMED OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, ESPECIALLY IN AND
NEAR RIVER VALLEYS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR MAY BE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS ALSO
HELPED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE MID JULY. WE WILL CERTAINLY TAKE ANY RELIEF WE CAN GET
FROM THE PROLONGED, BRUTAL SUMMER HEAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH TODAY WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
PEAKING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH PWATS STILL HIGH IN
THE 2-2.2" RANGE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL OR IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
WITH A MORE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES STAYING MOSTLY BELOW THE 100
DEGREE MARK. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, REMEMBER THE
SUNSCREEN AND WATER IF YOU ARE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS, AND IF YOU
SEE LIGHTNING/HEAR THUNDER MOVE INDOORS QUICKLY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, DIPPING INTO
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES! IN ADDITION, ANTICIPATING THE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEYOND SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO SWING OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. FURTHERMORE, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. AGAIN, WITH BULK SHEAR NEAR OR
BELOW 20 KNOTS, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH, BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND! BY SUNDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MERELY
TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS THAT NIGHT IN THE
60S. ENJOY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WHILE THEY LAST BUT MAKE SURE
TO ALSO STAY WEATHER AWARE - WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
A DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE TIME WE START
A NEW WORK WEEK. UPPER RIDGING THAT IN PART PRODUCED VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS EARLIER THIS WEEK, BY MONDAY SHOULD BE SITUATED
OVER THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO, WHILE WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM EAST/CENTRAL CANADA TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
SETUP IN ITSELF GENERALLY MEANS COOLER CONDITIONS THAT A TROUGHING
PATTERN PRODUCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MON/TUE NEXT WEEK SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOW/MID 80S, AND WED/THU INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES MON-WED NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THESE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER THAN "NORMAL" READINGS OF 92/71
NEXT WED, AUG 6TH.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRAPED IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER ALONG THE
GULF COAST. DESPITE THE BOUNDARY BEING WELL TO OUR SOUTH, MOISTURE
FROM A VERY WARM GULF WILL SEEP NORTHWARD, AND BRING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON SOMEWHAT OF A DIURNAL RANGE
(HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOONS) NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY THU. DAY/NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND SOMEWHAT LOWER AT NIGHT. A MAXIMA OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TUESDAY SHOULD BRING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE VALLEY. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE
MOISTURE FEED SLACKENS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THIS TIME SHOULD
BE MORE DIFFUSE AS IT CREEPS NORTHWARD AS WE GO INTO THU.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
DENSE FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
EARLIER RAIN HAS LED TO FAIRLY SATURATED NEAR-SFC CONDITIONS.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BUT THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS COULD
ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25
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