495
FXUS64 KHUN 012255
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
555 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
AS OF ABOUT 2 PM, SURFACE AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BISECT THE AREA EXTENDED FROM FRANKLIN TN
SW TOWARDS FRANKLIN AL. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE STORMS
HAVE BEGUN TO INITIATE. A GRADIENT IN SURFACE CAPE CAN BE SEEN ON
SPC MESOANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTING THE BETTER PARAMETERS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA BORDER. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK
FORCING FROM THE FRONT PROMPTED SPC TO INCLUDE THE SE BORDER OF
OUR CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS REPRESENTED IN THE
CAMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN NE AL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.
CAMS SHOW THE STORMS WAINING AROUND 0Z AS WE LOSE BOTH DAYTIME
HEATING AND PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. WE LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT ALLOWING THE CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DROP COMPARED TO RECENT OVERNIGHT LOWS. HREF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60-80% CHANCE OF MORNING LOWS BELOW 70
DEGREES NORTH OF THE TN RIVER. NBM PROBABILITIES MIRROR THESE
VALUES FOR THE SAME LOCATION. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 SINCE JULY 4TH AND BOTH HSV AND MSL. ONE
POTENTIAL INHIBITOR TO THIS IS THE TIMING OF A LOW STRATUS DECK
EXPECTED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IF IT MOVES IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER
THAN EXPECTED THIS WILL LIMIT OUR ABILITY TO COOL DOWN BELOW 70S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
THE OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. POST FRONTAL NNW FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL AID IN ADVECTING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE TN VALLEY. DEW
POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S AND POTENTIALLY THE HIGH 50S IN OUR
TN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MIRROR THIS DECREASE AND DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THESE NEAR
PERFECT CONDITIONS WILL BE SPOILED BY DAILY AFTERNOON RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN NE AL AS
A CAD SET REGIME SETS UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ACROSS
NE GA AND THE CAROLINAS. ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF THIS REGIME,
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MOISTER
ATLANTIC AIR INTO THE EASTERN AL, SUPPORTING THE INCREASED RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR DUE TO A LACK OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING, NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. RATHER, EACH AFTERNOON, STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
FOR THOSE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE WEEK, REMEMBER WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
A DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE TIME WE START
A NEW WORK WEEK. UPPER RIDGING THAT IN PART PRODUCED VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS EARLIER THIS WEEK, BY MONDAY SHOULD BE SITUATED
OVER THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO, WHILE WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM EAST/CENTRAL CANADA TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
SETUP IN ITSELF GENERALLY MEANS COOLER CONDITIONS THAT A TROUGHING
PATTERN PRODUCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MON/TUE NEXT WEEK SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOW/MID 80S, AND WED/THU INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES MON-WED NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
THESE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER THAN "NORMAL" READINGS OF 92/71
NEXT WED, AUG 6TH.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRAPED IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER ALONG THE
GULF COAST. DESPITE THE BOUNDARY BEING WELL TO OUR SOUTH, MOISTURE
FROM A VERY WARM GULF WILL SEEP NORTHWARD, AND BRING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON SOMEWHAT OF A DIURNAL RANGE
(HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOONS) NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY THU. DAY/NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND SOMEWHAT LOWER AT NIGHT. A MAXIMA OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TUESDAY SHOULD BRING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE VALLEY. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE
MOISTURE FEED SLACKENS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THIS TIME SHOULD
BE MORE DIFFUSE AS IT CREEPS NORTHWARD AS WE GO INTO THU.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER, FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THEN
DWINDLE SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING AT RADAR TRENDS, THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE HSV TERMINAL. NO SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES
LATER TONIGHT BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS BY MID-MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THEN, ANOTHER DAY WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ON TAP. CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN
THE HSV TERMINAL SEEING SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON VERSUS
MSL, SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE MSL TAF FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE
REASSESSED IN UPCOMING FORECAST UPDATES. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY HOVER AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS BY MID-MORNING ON
SATURDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26
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