283
FXUS64 KHUN 020318
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NE ALABAMA TO AROUND
THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH THE ADVENT OF
NIGHT-TIME COOLING, IT SHOULD BECOME A COLD FRONT LATER IN THE
EVENING, MOVING TO THE SOUTH, AND BE POSITIONED IN A WEST TO EAST
MANNER FROM SOUTHERN LA/MS TO ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHEN THE FRONT WAS HUNG UP OVER NE AL, IT
WAS IN PART HELPING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NE AL FROM SCOTTSBORO TO PARTS OF DEKALB
COUNTY, AND THE GA BORDER. THESE SHOWERS, AS WELL AS OTHER
CONVECTION HAS PRETTY MUCH CEASED AS A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
RETURNS.
THERE IS SOME RISK OF FOG FORMING IN THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN
THOSE FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS, AND IN/NEAR LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. ALTHOUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE MUGGY WITH LATE NIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 100 PERCENT, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER - RANGING IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70.
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRONGER WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH DURING SATURDAY. BUT ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE
SEEPING NORTHWARD, ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY, WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER NE AL WITH 60-80 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES, WITH 15-25 PERCENT CHANCES OVER NW AL. SOME AREAS
GENERALLY MORE TO THE EAST COULD RECEIVE ENOUGH RAINFALL THAT
COULD RESULT IN FLOODING. WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS (MORE TO THE EAST),
HIGH TEMPS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EAST, TO MID/UPPER 80S WEST. EXPECT MORE
COMFORTABLE HEAT INDICES ONLY IN THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GENERALLY LOWER HEIGHTS
OVER NE CANADA TO GREENLAND WILL PRODUCE A GENERAL TROUGHING
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH LOWER HEIGHTS, A "COOLER"
TREND IN COMPARISON TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE. CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER THEY WILL NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY AS A GREATER
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A WETTER DAY AREAWIDE SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT WEST TO 60-70 PERCENT EAST. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES, A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ON
SUN FROM THE MID 70 HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO MID 80S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUN EVENING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN LOW/MID 60S. THE START OF A NEW WORK WEEK, MONDAY WILL FEATURE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOW/MODERATE RAIN CHANCES (~30%
WEST TO 60% EAST), ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL "ONLY" RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. EXPECT LOWER RAIN
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
AN AMPLIFIED, SKINNY UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO PROGRESS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, A STOUT
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE WEEK TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY, WITH ITS OUTER
EDGE APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A
BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE GULF COAST. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS SLATED TO BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS MAY INHIBIT THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY FROM PROGRESSING BACK NORTH BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, EXPECT INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL AS DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALTHOUGH, SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH LATE WEEK DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED
UPPER RIDGE. AT THIS TIME, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO
THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR. BUT, ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. AS IS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR, ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO BECOME STRONG WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
HEAVY RAIN. REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND GO INDOORS IF YOU HEAR THUNDER
OR SEE LIGHTNING! LASTLY, PLEASANT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY. ENJOY THE LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHILE
THEY LAST!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER, FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THEN
DWINDLE SIGNIFICANTLY. LOOKING AT RADAR TRENDS, THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE HSV TERMINAL. NO SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT SAGS TO THE SOUTH,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES
LATER TONIGHT BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS BY MID-MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THEN, ANOTHER DAY WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ON TAP. CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN
THE HSV TERMINAL SEEING SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON VERSUS
MSL, SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE MSL TAF FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE
REASSESSED IN UPCOMING FORECAST UPDATES. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY HOVER AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS BY MID-MORNING ON
SATURDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26
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