899
FXUS64 KHUN 030556
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1256 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
A WEAK WIND-SHIFT LINE ORIENTED NORTH/SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, ACROSS NE AND CENTRAL ALABAMA WAS SHIFTING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A SUBSEQUENT MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT, HAS RESULTED IN SHOWER ACTIVITY GENERALLY
ENDING OVER FAR NE ALABAMA - AT THE MOMENT. BUT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DID CONTINUE FROM FAR WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA, TO ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER EAST OF MENTONE, THEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL/GA. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
IMPACTED DEKALB COUNTY PRODUCED 1.5" AT THE FORT PAYNE AIRPORT,
WITH LIKELY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEARBY. RUNOFF FROM THAT RAIN HAS
CAUSED A LARGE JUMP IN THE BIG WILLS CREEK WHICH PASSES THROUGH FT
PAYNE, IT'S LEVEL WENT FROM ABOUT 4' AT NOON, NOW TO 8.3'. ACTION
STAGE FOR THE CREEK IN FT PAYNE IS 10' WITH MINOR FLOODING AT
11'. IF SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES NOT RETURN, AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO
RISE ABOVE 10' THIS EVENING.
OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR WEST THE
ABOVE NOTED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT IN THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT MUCH
OF DEKALB COUNTY AND PARTS OF JACKSON COUNTY HAVE BEEN IMPACTED
BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST DAY OR SO, MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DESPITE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND THE GA/FL BORDER, A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. LIKE TODAY, THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST. WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND 50-60% RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE START OF A NEW
WEEK SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER NE ALABAMA, TO MID 80S
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT MOIST LIKE LAST WEEK, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE MORE POSSIBLE TO THE
EAST.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. AND FOR A CHANGE, LOW
TEMPERATURES SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S (BELOW 70
AREAWIDE FOR A CHANGE!) WITH LOW/MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-30%)
UNDER MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST. ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEEK, ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL BRING MEDIUM (50-60%) CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES, MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE HIGHS TO RISE
FROM AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
A TROUGHING PATTERN CONTROLLING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER INTO THE MID
WEEK, WILL SLOWLY REVERT BACK TO A RIDGE DOMINATED REGIME AS WE GO
TO THE LATE WEEK. MEAN TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS SHOULD BEGIN RETREATING TO THE NORTH WED, AS UPPER RIDGING
TO OUR SW REAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SOMEWHAT MORE TO THE EAST. THIS
RIDGE IN FACT BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE CENTRAL
500MB HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE 600 DECAMETERS ON THURSDAY, INDICATIVE
OF A VERY HOT CONDITIONS UNDER IT. BUT TOWARDS SAT, MORE OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE FORMING OVER THE APPALACHIANS, WHILE
THE RIDGING RETREATS SOMEWHAT MORE TO THE WEST.
THIS ALL CONTINUES UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID AND LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. A CONTINUATION OF MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY. AFTER LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TUE NIGHT, HIGHS
ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THU/FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S, THEN BACK INTO
THE LOWER 90S BY SAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
A DENSE MID TO LOW STRATUS DECK IS BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WILL SOON LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AS HSV THEN MSL
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 700-1000FT
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER NORTHEAST AL
WHILE CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER NORTHWEST AL. FOG
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
STRATUS MOVING IN, BUT COULD DEVELOP TEMPORARILY OVER MSL WHILE
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS THREAT HAS BEEN COVERED BY PROB30 GROUPS
AT BOTH TERMINALS. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER WILL BE
LIKELY DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page