839
FXUS64 KHUN 031118
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
THE RAIN IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER FAR NORTHEAST AL
AFTER DROPPING 1-3" OF RAINFALL OVER DEKALB COUNTY, WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6" OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
DEKALB GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND TERRAIN. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE FLORENCE/MUSCLE SHOALS AREA BY SUNRISE. WITH THE
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST AL TONIGHT, WE WILL HAVE TO PAY
SPECIAL ATTENTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IN THIS AREA TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST
OF I-65.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
DESPITE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND THE GA/FL BORDER, A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND 50-60% RAIN
CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE START OF A NEW WEEK SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER NE ALABAMA, TO MID 80S WEST. ALTHOUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT MOIST LIKE LAST WEEK, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING WILL BE MORE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. AND FOR A CHANGE, LOW
TEMPERATURES SUN NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S (BELOW 70
AREAWIDE FOR A CHANGE!) WITH LOW/MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-30%)
UNDER MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST. ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEEK, ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL BRING MEDIUM (50-60%) CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES, MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE HIGHS TO RISE
FROM AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
A TROUGHING PATTERN CONTROLLING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER INTO THE MID
WEEK, WILL SLOWLY REVERT BACK TO A RIDGE DOMINATED REGIME AS WE GO
TO THE LATE WEEK. MEAN TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS SHOULD BEGIN RETREATING TO THE NORTH WED, AS UPPER RIDGING
TO OUR SW REAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SOMEWHAT MORE TO THE EAST. THIS
RIDGE IN FACT BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE CENTRAL
500MB HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE 600 DECAMETERS ON THURSDAY, INDICATIVE
OF A VERY HOT CONDITIONS UNDER IT. BUT TOWARDS SAT, MORE OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE FORMING OVER THE APPALACHIANS, WHILE
THE RIDGING RETREATS SOMEWHAT MORE TO THE WEST.
THIS ALL CONTINUES UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID AND LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. A CONTINUATION OF MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY. AFTER LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TUE NIGHT, HIGHS
ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THU/FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S, THEN BACK INTO
THE LOWER 90S BY SAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
MVFR STRATUS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ALTHOUGH WE MAY
SEE A BREAK OR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF HSV AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON
AND CHANCES ARE GREATER EAST OF I-65. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAVING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TONIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25
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