332
FXUS64 KHUN 031533
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A VERY MILD DAY FOR
THE TN VALLEY. THIS IS COURTESY OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER SUPPORTED BY CAD JUST TO OUR EAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. ESE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
LOCALLY THIS WILL AMOUNT TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. WITH CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING A
THICK BLANKET OF STRATUS OVER THE AREA, WE WILL HAVE A VERY
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, WE WILL
HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN
DEKALB THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL YESTERDAY. WITH ELEVATED
MID LEVELS WINDS, STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
RATHER, IT WILL TAKE TRAINING SHOWERS TO LEAD TO ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, OUR
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO GREATLY FALL OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ARRIVES.
THE THICK STRATUS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HOW MUCH COOLER YOU MAY ASK,
WELL, ABOUT 10 DEGREES! THE UNIQUE PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST WILL
PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY TO TIE OR SET SOME NEW MINIMUM MAX
TEMPERATURES. THE MINIMUM MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE 80 AT
MSL, 83 AT DCU, AND 81 AT HSV. THE 12Z HREF INDICATES A 60-80%
CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW 80 DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 WHERE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STRATUS IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
OUR CURRENT MILD PATTERN PRESENT IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL
EXTEND INTO THE SHORT TERM. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, CAD IS SET TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ESE FLOW
ALONG THIS REGIME LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
FLOODING CONCERNS EACH DAY BASED ON PREVIOUS RAINFALL RECEIVED.
UNDER INCREASED CLOUD COVER, OUR TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPS WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THE MID 80S AND INDICATE THE START OF A SLOW WARMING TREND TO
RETURN OUR TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
A TROUGHING PATTERN CONTROLLING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER INTO THE MID
WEEK, WILL SLOWLY REVERT BACK TO A RIDGE DOMINATED REGIME AS WE GO
TO THE LATE WEEK. MEAN TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS SHOULD BEGIN RETREATING TO THE NORTH WED, AS UPPER RIDGING
TO OUR SW REAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS SOMEWHAT MORE TO THE EAST. THIS
RIDGE IN FACT BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE CENTRAL
500MB HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE 600 DECAMETERS ON THURSDAY, INDICATIVE
OF A VERY HOT CONDITIONS UNDER IT. BUT TOWARDS SAT, MORE OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE FORMING OVER THE APPALACHIANS, WHILE
THE RIDGING RETREATS SOMEWHAT MORE TO THE WEST.
THIS ALL CONTINUES UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID AND LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. A CONTINUATION OF MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF WILL KEEP MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY. AFTER LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TUE NIGHT, HIGHS
ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THU/FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S, THEN BACK INTO
THE LOWER 90S BY SAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
MVFR STRATUS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ALTHOUGH WE MAY
SEE A BREAK OR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF HSV AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON
AND CHANCES ARE GREATER EAST OF I-65. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAVING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TONIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25
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