046
FXUS64 KHUN 040331
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1031 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT AND
BASED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IT IS SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AL.
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS EVENING,
BUT HAVE NEARLY DISSIPATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A VERY LOW (10%) CHANCE
OF A SHOWER IN FAR NW AL OVERNIGHT GIVEN MOIST CONDITIONS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP ADVECT IN THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN ABOUT A MONTH AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FOR REFERENCE THE LAST
TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW 70 AT MSL AND HSV WAS ON JULY 4TH.
LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
AS WE START THE NEW WORKWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN THE LOWER 90S.
SIMILAR TO TODAY, THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ACROSS NORTHEAST AL. HOWEVER, WITH THE
BETTER LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA, MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE CANNOT
RULE OUT DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHEAST AL.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EAST OF I-65
AND MID TO UPPER 80S WEST OF I-65. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL
DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S, WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES OF DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDE SPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THESE WILL BE THE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOWER
CLOUDS FOR THE TAF. DAYTIME HEATING HAS SCATTERED SOME OF THE
STRATUS DECK OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT
TONIGHT, AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO RETURN. THESE CLOUDS AND AN ESE
WIND OF 5-10KT SHOULD PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FOG. ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE, THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER KHSV INTO THE
AFTERNOON MON, BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER KMSL. THERE WILL BE
LOWER END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT KMSL THIS EVENING, BUT CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF IN THIS ISSUANCE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RSB
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