595
FXUS64 KHUN 041723
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1223 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING. A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE
BEEN SEEN IN A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY. THIS HAS ALLOWED A FEW LOCATIONS
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 75 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS THOUGH ARE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REGION.
A COUPLE OF CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THIS
FRONT. 1) FROM EXTREME SE ALABAMA THROUGH THE MACON GEORGIA AREA
AND 2) FROM JUST WEST OF MOBILE, MS INTO EXTREME WESTERN
TENNESSEE. NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE SIT IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF CONVERGENCE, WHERE CURRENTLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW AND MOST MODELS SHOW CONTINUING
THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON MOST MODEL RH FIELDS AROUND 850 MB, NOT THINKING CLOUD
COVER WILL SCATTER OUT LONG ENOUGH BEFORE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
REFORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS OF THE LOWER 80S IN NW AL. OVERALL
BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION WITH CLOUD COVER EVOLUTION, LOWERED
HIGHS SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR.
ALL THIS BEING SAID, SOME WEAK FORCING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, COULD DEVELOP INTO CULLMAN, MARSHALL, AND
JACKSON COUNTIES AND MAYBE INTO FRANKLIN COUNTY (TN). WITH THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND SOME WARMING DURING THE DAY, INSTABILITY (THOUGH WEAK FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) COULD BE IN PLACE BY THEN. SO KEPT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED (20 TO 30%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MENTIONED DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION IN A FEW MODELS IF THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE
COULD EDGE JUST ENOUGH EASTWARD BY THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE 20-30%
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST, BUT NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE IN
GENERAL KEEPS IT MORE OVER MISSISSIPPI. THEREFORE, LEFT CHANCES OF
RAIN OR STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FURTHER WEST.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE CANNOT
RULE OUT DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHEAST AL.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EAST OF I-65
AND MID TO UPPER 80S WEST OF I-65. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL
DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE CANNOT
RULE OUT DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHEAST AL.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EAST OF I-65
AND MID TO UPPER 80S WEST OF I-65. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL
DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S, WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES OF DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDE SPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THESE WILL BE THE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME STORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z. MORE
CLEARING MAY OCCUR AT KMSL TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, WHEN VFR CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR AT THAT TERMINAL. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VSBYS TOWARDS DAYBREAK THERE, BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. NOT SO SURE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AT KHSV. CIGS SHOULD
THEN DROP BACK INTO THE MVFR REALM AGAIN AFTER 08Z AND REMAIN
BELOW 3000 FEET IN THE MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...KTW
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