549
FXUS64 KHUN 042243
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS
CLOUD COVER HAS REALLY LIMITED INSTABILITY TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS LACK
OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE MAY KEEP ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER, SO NOT TAKING OUT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY (LEAVING 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES IN FOR
NOW).
IN NW ALABAMA, MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD
DISSIPATE OR SCATTER OUT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
THIS WILL HAPPEN NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF IT ALONG AND
SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME (20-40% COVERAGE). INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG MAINLY. LUCKILY,
SHEAR IS STILL VERY WEAK BELOW 15 KNOTS MAINLY, SO NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE REMAIN
UNIMPRESSIVE, SO A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR. IF STORMS SITS LONG ENOUGH OVER AN AREA
(DUE TO OVERALL SLOW MOVEMENT), SOME VERY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
COULD OCCUR, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD INCREASE SLOWLY
DURING THIS PERIOD FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TOMORROW INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN MOST GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
THIS PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND, AS THE
TROUGH AXIS TRANSITIONS INTO A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. AGAIN, LITTLE SHEAR IS
SHOWN IN MODELS, BUT DCAPE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING,
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE STRONG STORMS. HEAT LOOKS TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND A BIT MORE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, DESPITE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION (NOT A WASHOUT, BUT 30 TO 50% COVERAGE).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD KEEPING
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...GH
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