291
FXUS64 KHUN 201925
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED IN
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTH CENTRAL AL. THE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3/HR AND PEA SIZED HAIL ALONG WITH
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS NEW
STORMS IN MIDDLE TN DROP SOUTHWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
EARLIER FORECAST THINKING FROM THIS MORNING.
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
THE SURFACE MAP INDICATES A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH INTO KY
THROUGH SOUTHERN MO NEAR THE POSITION OF A WEAK 5H TROUGH. THERE
IS ALSO A WEAK WEDGE FRONT LINING THE LOWER APPALACHIANS THROUGH
CENTRAL GA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ADVANCE INSTABILITY RATHER
QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PERHAPS NEAR THE WEDGE FRONT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY IS
RATHER DIFFUSE. GUSTY TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS LATER TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET,
ALTHOUGH GUST FRONT OUTFLOWS MAY SUSTAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO
MID EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN FALLS, PATCHY DENSE FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
THE 5H TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE TN
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE GREATEST
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. BUT
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES IN OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. CONSEQUENTLY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
NORTHWEST AL, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S. WITH DEW POINTS
STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE
TO THOSE VALUES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT GIVE WAY TO LOWER TEMPERATURES.
THE TN VALLEY WILL BE STUCK IN WEAK TROUGHING AT THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH AXIS DRIFTING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY AND ON SUNDAY IT WILL BRING ONE
MORE LOW END CHANCE (15-30%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN.
WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND ELEVATED PWATS (1.5-1.9"), STORMS
SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE,
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN, BRINGING A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY, AND
RAINFALL AS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. WE WILL SEE A STEADY
DECLINE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY AND ONLY REACHING THE LOWER
80S ON TUESDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, REALLY MAKING IT FEEL LIKE FALL!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z, SOME WITH +RA
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40KT. THE TSRA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE. PATCHY BR/FG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO 5SM OR LESS (MVFR) AND PERHAPS LESS THAN 3SM (IFR) IN A FEW
AREAS. ADDITIONAL CEILINGS OF 020-025AGL (MVFR) MAY DEVELOP NEAR A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE AFTER 14Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...17
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