527
FXUS64 KHUN 210540
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS HAVE MOSTLY SUBSIDED LATE THIS
EVENING ASIDE FROM FAR NW AL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG WITH THE SATURATED GROUND AFTER THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUD COVER AND HOW THAT MAY
AFFECT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT, AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY RIGHT NOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND LESS
THAN 20% CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND HEAT INDICES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
AS HURRICANE ERIN MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST,
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE LITTLE ALONG WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE. THIS AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND WILL BRING LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE LIMITED WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
FORCING TO OUR SOUTH, AND THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE OVER NE AL.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES. LOW
CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING A WELCOMED RELIEF TO THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THIS PAST WEEK. THE FIRST TASTE OF THE COOLER
WEATHER OCCURS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS TEMPS DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER
60S.
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERLY SFC FLOW
KEEPS THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. IF HUNTSVILLE WERE TO DIP BELOW 60F ONE OF THESE NIGHTS IT WOULD
BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE LATE MAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A VORT
MAX SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE, HENCE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE (15-20%) BLENDED POPS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT IF THIS FEATURE WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROVIDE SOME
REINFORCEMENTS TO KEEP THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
AT TAF ISSUANCE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE TN FAR NW AL WAS
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY PRECEDING
THIS BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH, A COMPLEX FORECAST REMAINS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG FORMING IN THE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER TN, BUT SHOULD OVERSPREAD AL IN THE LATE NIGHT,
WITH CIGS/VSBY BEING IMPACTED TO SOME DEGREE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK THU, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TOWARDS
NOON. LIGHT NW-N WINDS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY THU EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RSB
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