952
FXUS64 KHUN 211128
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
628 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA, NOW EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA, TO NEAR ATLANTA AND BIRMINGHAM AND SOUTH
OF MEMPHIS. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT PRECEDED IT HAS DISSIPATED,
LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH SOMEWHAT LONGER LATER
SUMMER NIGHTS, THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO FORM, THAT WAS BEGINNING TO OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LOW CLOUDS OR FOG COULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY. CLOUDS
OR FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT'S PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS
LATER TODAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. DESPITE THE CHANGE, NOT ALL OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
HAS BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE REMAINING WILL BRING LOWER END (20%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
AS HURRICANE ERIN MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST,
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE LITTLE ALONG WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE. THIS AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND WILL BRING LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE LIMITED WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC
FORCING TO OUR SOUTH, AND THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE OVER NE AL.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES. LOW
CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING A WELCOMED RELIEF TO THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THIS PAST WEEK. THE FIRST TASTE OF THE COOLER
WEATHER OCCURS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS TEMPS DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER
60S.
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERLY SFC FLOW
KEEPS THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. IF HUNTSVILLE WERE TO DIP BELOW 60F ONE OF THESE NIGHTS IT WOULD
BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE LATE MAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A VORT
MAX SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE, HENCE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE (15-20%) BLENDED POPS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT IF THIS FEATURE WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROVIDE SOME
REINFORCEMENTS TO KEEP THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
VFR WEATHER HAS HELD AT KMSL/KHSV THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BUT THERE
WERE SOME CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS ABOUT 30NMI TO THE SOUTH OF THOSE
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS AREAWIDE SHOULD BECOME VFR WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING. DEEPER RESIDUAL MOISTURE MORE TO
EAST COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THAT FORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY
EVENING. THE MODELS WERE GENERALLY PICKING UP ON LATE NIGHT FOG,
SO INCLUDED IT FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RSB
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