189
FXUS64 KHUN 212242
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
542 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS ONLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER DEKALB COUNTY AND HAVE SINCE MOVED
SOUTH. LIGHT SHOWERS CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN NEAR SCOTTSBORO AND WE
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST AL AND CULLMAN COUNTY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS SKIES BEGIN
TO CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
TIED TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE RISK FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY IN AND ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
AS HURRICANE ERIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE LITTLE ALONG WITH THE
FRONT/AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH
OVER NORTHEAST AL AND WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE A BIT
MORE LIMITED WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING TO OUR SOUTH, AND
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (50-60%) WILL BE OVER NE AL. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES. LOW CHANCES FOR
PATCHY FOG WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING A WELCOMED RELIEF TO THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THIS PAST WEEK. THE FIRST TASTE OF THE COOLER
WEATHER OCCURS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS TEMPS DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER
60S.
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERLY SFC FLOW
KEEPS THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. IF HUNTSVILLE WERE TO DIP BELOW 60F ONE OF THESE NIGHTS IT WOULD
BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE LATE MAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A VORT
MAX SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE, HENCE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE (15-20%) BLENDED POPS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT IF THIS FEATURE WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROVIDE SOME
REINFORCEMENTS TO KEEP THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FROM THE NW
TO NE. NEAR SUNRISE, A LOW MVFR CLOUD DECK IS FORECAST TO CREEP IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACTLY HOW FOR NORTH
AND WEST THIS CLOUD DECK WILL REACH. CURRENTLY LOWER MVFR CEILINGS
ARE INTRODUCED AROUND 13Z AT HSV ONLY. FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WILL
REFINE TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF THE POTENTIAL MVFR
CEILING TOMORROW MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RAD
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