271
FXUS64 KHUN 220539
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1239 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
THE TN VALLEY IS NOW SOLIDLY POST FRONTAL AS SEEN BY SURFACE
OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE. STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
HAVE PUSHED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTING THE FRONT IS DRAPED FROM CALHOUN COUNTY IN NE AL TO
SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL AL. SPLIT WINDOW SATELLITE ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS WITH A CLEAR DIVISION SHOWN ALONG THE SAME BOUNDARY
WITH MOISTER CONDITIONS TO THE SE AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE NW.
CURRENT CLEAR AND CALM POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS YET THIS WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW
STRATUS DECK TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED TO OVERCAST SKIES THAT
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING WILL UNFORTUNATELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
COMPLETELY DEPLETE OUR RAIN CHANCES. AT THE SURFACE, EASTERLY
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOIST ENOUGH CONDITIONS IN NE AL FOR MEDIUM
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (40-60%) FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR, STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE SEVERE BUT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WITH MILD LATE
SUMMER CONDITIONS (HIGHS IN THE HIGH 80S) PREVAILING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE SHORT
TERM. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS WE REMAIN POST FRONTAL.
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT
AFTERNOON RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN NE AL WITH A LOW CHANCE OF ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. THE INTERESTING PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY WHEN A TRUE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE SURFACE
APPENDAGE OF A MUCH LARGER TROUGH PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
CONUS. LOCALLY, THE WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE PREFRONTAL MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST
INSTABILITY. THIS PAIRED WITH THE WEAK SHEAR PRESENT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT, A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. THEN A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN AN EARLY TASTE OF FALL
WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO OUR
WEST AND BY THURSDAY IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT BACK INTO THE MID 80S AND PROVIDE SOME
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER, STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER TROUGH GETS
PUSHED AND HENCE, IMPACTING OUR RAIN CHANCES. IF IT REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN OUR PRECIP CHANCES WOULD
DECREASE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE TAF.
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR EASTERN AREAS, ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAKING IT WESTWARD TO KHSV, SO ADDED A VICINITY SHOWER
FOR THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION THAT FORMS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
KMSL. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...RSB
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