044
FXUS64 KHUN 222035
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
335 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN TN BUT HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY SO FAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WILL BE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD-
PRONE AREAS OF HILLY TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING
STORM COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING SO POPS WERE NOT RAISED DURING THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS FORECAST:
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER NW GA AND NE AL THIS MORNING BUT
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE DRY OVER THE AREA. A MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL EXIST TODAY AS THE SFC FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY AND WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF A BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM, SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) WILL BE EAST OF I-65 WITH 20% OR LESS POPS
WEST.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY TOPPING OUT NEAR 90 DEGREES.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BELOW THE 100
DEGREE MARK, BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER OUTSIDE AND HEAT
SAFETY GUIDELINES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FOLLOWED. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 60S WITH CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG IN AND
AROUND RIVER VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS WE REMAIN SPLIT
BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND TROUGHING CENTERED
AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY FLOW ALONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
BRINGING MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF I-65 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. WE ARE DUE FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND THE
BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES COME
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
EXIST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TO GENERATE AT LEAST A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR TO
SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO, BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT, A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT TO DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. THEN A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN AN EARLY TASTE OF FALL
WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO OUR
WEST AND BY THURSDAY IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT BACK INTO THE MID 80S AND PROVIDE SOME
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER, STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER TROUGH GETS
PUSHED AND HENCE, IMPACTING OUR RAIN CHANCES. IF IT REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEN OUR PRECIP CHANCES WOULD
DECREASE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
MVFR TO VFR CIGS EXIST ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS EAST OF I-65 DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS. THE BEST COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE
KHSV TERMINAL BUT MAY EXTEND WEST FAR ENOUGH TO CAUSE IMPACTS AT
SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT MAY KEEP FOG AT BAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IF THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO IMPACT EITHER
TERMINAL. ADDITIONALLY, FOG MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES IF CLOUD COVER IS LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...25
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