147
FXUS64 KHUN 230222
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MAJORITY OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LOCATED ALONG AND
EAST OF I-65. REMNANT OUTFLOWS BOUNDARIES FROM THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE AREAS TO WATCH TOMORROW FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. AS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN BEFORE MORNING ACROSS NE
AL WITH CLEAR SKIES FURTHER TO THE WEST. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TOMORROW, A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE AL/GA STATE
LINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER
IN POPS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS, BUT GIVEN PWS BETWEEN
1.5-1.75 INCHES, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HENCE, WPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH ON
SUNDAY AS AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF PRECIP IS ONCE
AGAIN AREAS EAST OF I-65. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A BEAUTIFUL LATE AUGUST
DAY IS IN STORE ON MONDAY AS CAA ADVECTION HOLDS AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MORE NOTICEABLE
HOWEVER, WILL BE THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
BY MONDAY NIGHT WE WILL BE SOLIDLY POST FRONTAL. ALOFT, WE WILL
REMAIN IN NW FLOW AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY THIS WILL AMOUNT TO DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUMMER. SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WILL LARGELY BE FROM THE NORTH, REINFORCING OUR DRY AND
COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL AMOUNT TO NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 70S IN
SOME OF OUR TERRAIN AREAS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT ALIGNMENT IN
SHOWING OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE AUGUST. THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR BELOW
NORMAL WE COULD REACH. IF WE RETAIN SOME DECENT CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY THIS WILL FAVOR LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS. VICE VERSA, IF WE
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, THE CALM CONDITIONS WILL BE PERFECT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERAL
LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WHILE THESE TEMPS
WILL NOT BE SUPER CONSEQUENTIAL, AS THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER WE CAN
REFINE OUR FALSE FALL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY DEVELOP NEAR HSV THIS EVENING
IT IS TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO POP UP RESULTING IN
BOTH LOW VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN
AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THIS WITHIN A PROB 30 GROUP.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...GH
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