221
FXUS64 KHUN 230722
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
222 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE KEPT A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE OFF OF
THESE LINGERING BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH LATER TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE FOUR CORNERS, AND A WEAK
TROUGH ACROSS GA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH THIS, HIGHER
POPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, RANGING FROM LOW CHANCES 20-30% W OF I-65
TO MEDIUM CHANCES 40-70% E OF I-65. NOT EXPECTING STORMS TODAY TO
BE SEVERE, HOWEVER PROFILES SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE AS PWATS ENCROACH 2 INCHES. COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW, THEY WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHILE MOVING FAIRLY SLOW,
GIVING WAY TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WPC HIGHLIGHTS
LOCATIONS AROUND I-65 AND EASTWARD IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT
OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THIS REASON. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WHERE WE SEE THE MOST RAINFALL
TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN NW AL.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH ON
SUNDAY AS AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF PRECIP IS ONCE
AGAIN AREAS EAST OF I-65. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS TO FILTER IN. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A BEAUTIFUL LATE AUGUST
DAY IS IN STORE ON MONDAY AS CAA ADVECTION HOLDS AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MORE NOTICEABLE
HOWEVER, WILL BE THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
BY MONDAY NIGHT WE WILL BE SOLIDLY POST FRONTAL. ALOFT, WE WILL
REMAIN IN NW FLOW AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY THIS WILL AMOUNT TO DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUMMER. SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WILL LARGELY BE FROM THE NORTH, REINFORCING OUR DRY AND
COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL AMOUNT TO NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 70S IN
SOME OF OUR TERRAIN AREAS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT ALIGNMENT IN
SHOWING OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE AUGUST. THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR BELOW
NORMAL WE COULD REACH. IF WE RETAIN SOME DECENT CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY THIS WILL FAVOR LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS. VICE VERSA, IF WE
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, THE CALM CONDITIONS WILL BE PERFECT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERAL
LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WHILE THESE TEMPS
WILL NOT BE SUPER CONSEQUENTIAL, AS THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER WE CAN
REFINE OUR FALSE FALL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IF TERMINALS ARE DIRECTLY IMPACTED, MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL OCCUR. KEPT THE CONVECTION IN A PROB30 AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE, HOWEVER WILL NOTE THAT KHSV
HAS THE GREATER CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...JMS
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