866
FXUS64 KHUN 231636
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1136 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
A COMPACT VORTICITY CENTER OVER NORTH AL WILL SHIFT SOUTH TODAY AS
A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS STILL LIES OVER MIDDLE TN THROUGH WESTERN
AL. THE TROUGH DIVIDES DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FROM
UPPER 60S FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE
A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN HAZARD AT
THIS POINT. WIDESPREAD LOWER AND MID CLOUDS MAY PREVENT STRONGER
HEATING AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES FOR STRONGER STORMS, BUT WILL
MONITOR THAT TREND THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE A
FAIRLY WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES/PLATEAUS TO AROUND 90 IN FAR
NORTHWEST AL. CAMS SUGGEST THAT A BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. PATCHY FOG AND ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY,
WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY
AND THROUGH THE TN VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SIGNAL
A HUGE CHANGE IN OUR AIRMASS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S, MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH UPPER
70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MAY TURN
TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY AS BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS TRANSPORTS HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION FROM A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
BY MONDAY NIGHT WE WILL BE SOLIDLY POST FRONTAL. ALOFT, WE WILL
REMAIN IN NW FLOW AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY THIS WILL AMOUNT TO DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUMMER. SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WILL LARGELY BE FROM THE NORTH, REINFORCING OUR DRY AND
COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL AMOUNT TO NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 70S IN
SOME OF OUR TERRAIN AREAS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT ALIGNMENT IN
SHOWING OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE AUGUST. THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR BELOW
NORMAL WE COULD REACH. IF WE RETAIN SOME DECENT CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY THIS WILL FAVOR LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS. VICE VERSA, IF WE
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, THE CALM CONDITIONS WILL BE PERFECT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERAL
LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WHILE THESE TEMPS
WILL NOT BE SUPER CONSEQUENTIAL, AS THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER WE CAN
REFINE OUR FALSE FALL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP AS CEILINGS RISE TO 030AGL OR
ABOVE (VFR). HOWEVER, TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO IFR OR MVFR
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED DURING SHRA OR TSRA. THE SHRA AND TSRA
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z WITH AREAS OF FG/BR (IFR OR
MVFR) AND LOW CEILINGS BELOW 020AGL (MVFR). A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH BY 15-17Z WITH DRIER AIR, CLEARING SKY
AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page