709
FXUS64 KHUN 232315
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
615 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA HAS BEEN ALONG AND NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS EAST. WHERE COVERAGE HAS BEEN LESS IN NORTHWEST AL,
SUNSHINE HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
MEANWHILE, UPPER 70S ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AL. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED THUS FAR, BUT EXPECT
THIS TO PICK UP THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER HEATING.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE
HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. AND, GIVEN THEIR ERRATIC AND SLOW MOVEMENT,
PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT AND THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTS THIS
TREND. OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUD ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY,
WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY
AND THROUGH THE TN VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SIGNAL
A HUGE CHANGE IN OUR AIRMASS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S, MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH UPPER
70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MAY TURN
TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER IN THE DAY AS BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS TRANSPORTS HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION FROM A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
BY MONDAY NIGHT WE WILL BE SOLIDLY POST FRONTAL. ALOFT, WE WILL
REMAIN IN NW FLOW AS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY THIS WILL AMOUNT TO DRY AND
RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUMMER. SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WILL LARGELY BE FROM THE NORTH, REINFORCING OUR DRY AND
COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL AMOUNT TO NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 70S IN
SOME OF OUR TERRAIN AREAS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT ALIGNMENT IN
SHOWING OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE AUGUST. THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW FAR BELOW
NORMAL WE COULD REACH. IF WE RETAIN SOME DECENT CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY THIS WILL FAVOR LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS. VICE VERSA, IF WE
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, THE CALM CONDITIONS WILL BE PERFECT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERAL
LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WHILE THESE TEMPS
WILL NOT BE SUPER CONSEQUENTIAL, AS THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER WE CAN
REFINE OUR FALSE FALL TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHTS WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR DUE TO SOME PASSING TSRA THROUGH 02Z. AWWS
AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...AMP.24
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