398
FXUS64 KHUN 250405
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1105 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
STILL FAIRLY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S,
DESPITE CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO WINDS THAT
HAVE REMAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS OR A BIT HIGHER SO FAR THIS EVENING
AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA EXTENDING THROUGH THE BIRMINGHAM AREA
ROUGHLY.
THOUGH THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH, THE REALLY DRY
AND COOLER AIR IS STILL BEHIND A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN TENNESSEE. THIS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH,
LOWS WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. THE
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FROM
FORMING.
THE VERY DRY AIR AND POST-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PUSH FURTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE DAY. VERY
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS EXPECTED. HIGHS
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT WILL FEEL QUITE
REFRESHING OUT THERE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
IN MOST GUIDANCE, THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH A BIT LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THAT MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA, MAINLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. IT
SHOULD ALSO KEEP OUR LOWS FROM LOWERING EVEN MORE UNFORTUNATELY.
THOUGH IS WILL STILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S).
A SECOND AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS ROTATES AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD FORCE
THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHLY WEDNESDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AND EVEN NICER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD IN FACT
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE PRIMARILY ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT
INTO THE 75 TO 82 DEGREE RANGE PRIMARILY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH AXIS ROTATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST
AND NORTHEAST REGION AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD NOT BRING NORTHERN ALABAMA OR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIMEFRAME, BUT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS DO
PRODUCE A STORM COMPLEX TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. HOW AMPLIFIED THE NW FLOW
IS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHETHER THIS COMPLEX MOVES OVER THE
AREA OR JUST GLANCES OUR AREA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PLAYING IT CONSERVATIVE
GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCE IN THIS NW FLOW AND HOW AMPLIFIED IT IS. FOR
NOW, KEPT WITH ENSEMBLE APPROACH (ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS). HOWEVER, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY GO UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
THE MORE AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN, THE LESS PRECIPITATION WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOLER WEATHER MAY OCCUR.
THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL SPREAD THOUGH IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER,
SEVERAL MODELS CONVERGE A BIT MORE ON A WETTER AND STORMIER
PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG,
BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AT THE TERMINALS WITH SOME GUSTS TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS. MUCH DRIER AIR AND WINDS WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page