039
FXUS64 KHUN 251033
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AS THE TN
VALLEY FINDS ITSELF BEHIND THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT OF
THE SEASON. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT HAS
SEEPED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA BOARDER WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
CENTRAL AL. THIS IS EASILY SUPPORT WITH SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS WHERE SPLIT WINDOW SATELLITE SHOWS A MUCH DRIER
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER THE TN VALLEY AND OBS WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND TEMPS IN THE 60S ARE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE AREA.
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, THE PARENT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND SE RESPECTIVELY. AS SUCH, NNW FLOW
WILL REMAIN DOMINATE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT USHERING IN A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER LATE SUMMER AIRMASS. THE STEEP AIRMASS
CHANGE WILL FIRST BE FELT HERE IN A FEW HOURS WHEN MOST OF THE NON
SHIFT WORKERS LEAVE FOR WORK AND SCHOOL. SUNRISE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOW 60S AND PERHAPS EVEN HIGH 50S FOR OUR TN
COUNTIES, ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OUR ANOMALOUS TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY WITH THE STRONG CAA LIMITING OUR HIGHS
TO THE LOW 80S TO UPPER 70S. AGAIN, ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY BE PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THEY SHEAR OFF FROM A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS. OTHERWISE A BENIGN, AND RATHER COOL DAY WILL BE IN STORE
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
IN MOST GUIDANCE, THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH A BIT LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THAT MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA, MAINLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. IT
SHOULD ALSO KEEP OUR LOWS FROM LOWERING EVEN MORE UNFORTUNATELY.
THOUGH IS WILL STILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S).
A SECOND AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS ROTATES AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD FORCE
THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHLY WEDNESDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AND EVEN NICER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD IN FACT
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE PRIMARILY ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT
INTO THE 75 TO 82 DEGREE RANGE PRIMARILY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH AXIS ROTATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST
AND NORTHEAST REGION AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD NOT BRING NORTHERN ALABAMA OR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIMEFRAME, BUT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS DO
PRODUCE A STORM COMPLEX TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. HOW AMPLIFIED THE NW FLOW
IS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHETHER THIS COMPLEX MOVES OVER THE
AREA OR JUST GLANCES OUR AREA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PLAYING IT CONSERVATIVE
GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCE IN THIS NW FLOW AND HOW AMPLIFIED IT IS. FOR
NOW, KEPT WITH ENSEMBLE APPROACH (ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS). HOWEVER, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY GO UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
THE MORE AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN, THE LESS PRECIPITATION WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOLER WEATHER MAY OCCUR.
THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL SPREAD THOUGH IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER,
SEVERAL MODELS CONVERGE A BIT MORE ON A WETTER AND STORMIER
PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RAD
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