593
FXUS64 KHUN 251641
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1141 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO BE DRY
AND RELATIVELY COOLER TODAY AS STRONG CAA LIMITS HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (WHICH IS AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). NNE WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ACCOMPANYING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. CAMS ARE
HINTING AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT (15-25% CHANCE) OF SHOWERS IN NW AL
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THIS SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
TUESDAY MORNING, CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LOW CHANCE (15-25%)
OF SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF NW AL IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK CONVERGENCE
AXIS. IF SHOWERS COME TO FRUITION, WE EXPECT THEM TO DISSIPATE BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND DRY WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE AREA. MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO 60S, WHICH
CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST TO RETURN THURSDAY
(MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM BELOW).
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH AXIS ROTATES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST
AND NORTHEAST REGION AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD NOT BRING NORTHERN ALABAMA OR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIMEFRAME, BUT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS DO
PRODUCE A STORM COMPLEX TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. HOW AMPLIFIED THE NW FLOW
IS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHETHER THIS COMPLEX MOVES OVER THE
AREA OR JUST GLANCES OUR AREA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PLAYING IT CONSERVATIVE
GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCE IN THIS NW FLOW AND HOW AMPLIFIED IT IS. FOR
NOW, KEPT WITH ENSEMBLE APPROACH (ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS). HOWEVER, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY GO UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
THE MORE AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN, THE LESS PRECIPITATION WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AND ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COOLER WEATHER MAY OCCUR.
THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL SPREAD THOUGH IN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER,
SEVERAL MODELS CONVERGE A BIT MORE ON A WETTER AND STORMIER
PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (25% OR LESS) THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KMSL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS,
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE OFFICIAL TAF PACKAGE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...HC
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