804
FXUS64 KHUN 260337
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1037 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AUGUST CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN, AS CANADIAN BASED HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BUILDS TO THE SE. UNTIL
AN AREA OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY ROSE INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S; MOST DEFINITELY COOLER THAN A USUAL HIGH
AROUND 91 DEGREES.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS WERE MAINLY BLOW-OFF FROM
CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKIES AND POINTS WEST. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING TO THE SE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY, ALONG WITH THE CURRENT PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP LOWER END CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NW ALABAMA
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
WERE DRIER ON THIS POSSIBILITY. WE BUT STAYED ON A SLIGHTLY WETTER
TREND PER THE AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT COULD OCCUR.
WHETHER IT RAINS NOR NOT, LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WILL CHILL
INTO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NE ALABAMA TO
THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE - DEFINITELY COLDER THAN NORMAL LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.
MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN AND LOWER THICKNESSES,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY WILL BE A BIT COOLER, FROM THE MID
70S IN THE MORE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S OVER NW ALABAMA. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS SHOULD FADE AS WE GO INTO
THE DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
CLOUDS WILL FADE AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH EVEN COOLER
AIR FILTERING IN, LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL TUMBLE INTO THE FIFTIES WITH
A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED MORNING
ARE 52 AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE, WHICH COULD BE CHALLENGED.
WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE, A TEMPERATE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S NW ALABAMA. A
BIT MILDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
IN THE MEANWHILE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE POOLING WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT EASTWARD. THIS MOISTURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE CLOSEOUT OF THE WORKWEEK.
THIS WILL BRING MORE LOWER END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME
THUNDER MIXED IN THURSDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
A TROUGHING EAST, WEAK RIDGING WEST SETUP APPARENTLY WILL CONTINUE
AS WE GO INTO THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN GOING AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS OVERALL WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST
THEMSELVES IN THE LATE WEEK, MAINTAINING THE EASTERN TROUGH. THIS
OF COURSE WILL HELP KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT SAID, DAILY HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE LOWER TO AT TIMES MID 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S THU/FRI NIGHT, THEN IN THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND.
A MORE CHALLENGING ITEM IS HOW MUCH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FURTHER OUT, WERE IN MORE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ONE ANOTHER. THUS STAYED WITH A ENSEMBLE AND
BLENDS APPROACH. NEW MODEL OUTPUT COMING IN WAS SHOWING THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AFTERWARDS, SHOWER
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSED MORE TO OUR SOUTH, AND ON A
DIURNAL TREND (HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON WERE IT
OCCURS). THUS AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS MOST OF THIS AREA SHOULD
STAY WITH A DRIER TREND OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
WATCH MODEL TRENDS IN CASE LIGHT RAIN EDGES EAST TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS. FOR NOW, LEAVING IT OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY DUE TO DRY
AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WINDS
TONIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND THIS DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER 26/18Z BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...KTW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page