177
FXUS64 KHUN 260817
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
317 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
AS OF AROUND 3 AM THE TN VALLEY REMAINS SNUGLY TUCKED IN UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER. DESPITE CONTINUED CAA THROUGH THE DAY, THE
THICK BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER HAS MODERATED OUR TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WITH THE ENTIRE AREA CURRENTLY ABOVE 60 DEGREES. THE
HEAVY CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNRISE AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHEAR OFF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND PROGRESS EAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
AS SUCH, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
YESTERDAYS LOWS, YET STILL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
LATE SUMMER.
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS NW FLOW ALONG
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH USHERS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS WILL SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DAY TIME HEATING WORKS TO
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DECK. THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS WILL AGAIN
HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS, KEEPING A LARGE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA BELOW 80 DEGREES. SHOULD CLOUD COVER TAKE LONGER TO
ERODE, TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MAY PREVAIL AS OPPOSED TO
HIGH 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
CLOUDS WILL FADE AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH EVEN COOLER
AIR FILTERING IN, LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL TUMBLE INTO THE FIFTIES WITH
A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED MORNING
ARE 52 AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE, WHICH COULD BE CHALLENGED.
WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE, A TEMPERATE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S NW ALABAMA. A
BIT MILDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
IN THE MEANWHILE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE POOLING WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT EASTWARD. THIS MOISTURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE CLOSEOUT OF THE WORKWEEK.
THIS WILL BRING MORE LOWER END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME
THUNDER MIXED IN THURSDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
A TROUGHING EAST, WEAK RIDGING WEST SETUP APPARENTLY WILL CONTINUE
AS WE GO INTO THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN GOING AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS OVERALL WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST
THEMSELVES IN THE LATE WEEK, MAINTAINING THE EASTERN TROUGH. THIS
OF COURSE WILL HELP KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT SAID, DAILY HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE LOWER TO AT TIMES MID 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S THU/FRI NIGHT, THEN IN THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND.
A MORE CHALLENGING ITEM IS HOW MUCH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FURTHER OUT, WERE IN MORE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ONE ANOTHER. THUS STAYED WITH A ENSEMBLE AND
BLENDS APPROACH. NEW MODEL OUTPUT COMING IN WAS SHOWING THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AFTERWARDS, SHOWER
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSED MORE TO OUR SOUTH, AND ON A
DIURNAL TREND (HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON WERE IT
OCCURS). THUS AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS MOST OF THIS AREA SHOULD
STAY WITH A DRIER TREND OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RAD
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