969
FXUS64 KHUN 261700
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF NW AL THIS MORNING.
LOW CHANCES (5-15%) WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT THEN
TAPER OFF FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ANTICIPATING CLOUD COVER TO THIN
OUT THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, THIS HAS ALREADY BEGUN WHEN LOOKING
AT TRENDS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
UPPER 70S EAST OF I-65 AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST.
IT'LL ALSO CONTINUE TO FEEL LESS MUGGY AS DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING.
ALTHOUGH, SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE COULD DROP
FURTHER INTO THE 40S. THEREFORE, LOWERED DEW POINT VALUES SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THIS. OVERALL, ENJOY YOUR TUESDAY!
SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND, COMBINED WITH CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST, WILL RESULT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME SPOTS, ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND BODIES OF WATER,
MAY BE A BIT WARMER (IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S). THESE VALUES ARE
BELOW THE NORMAL VALUES (UPPER 60S) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS,
YOU MAY NEED A LIGHT JACKET IF HEADING OUTDOORS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING!
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
HELP KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE A TOUCH WARMER TOO ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THIS, WITH VALUES IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EAST OF I-65 AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WEST OF I-65. CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN US. A
FEW SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN TO PROGRESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY AS WELL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
BY THURSDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE GULF
COAST LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS CENTRAL ALABAMA. PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6-1.75 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF OUR LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER VALUES OVER THE
NORTHEAST (0.9-1.4 INCHES). TRENDS IN FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE ALSO DECREASED TO UNDER HALF OF AN INCH (HIGHEST OVER NW AL)
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY INSTABILITY AND BULK
SHEAR LOOK TO BE MORESO CONCENTRATED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS
WELL; THEREFORE, THESE TRENDS GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS AND MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY STORMS
DO FORM, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WOULD BE FROM COLBERT COUNTY,
AL DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST CULLMAN COUNTY, AL. OVERALL, EXPECT LOW
CHANCES (10-30%) OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
(HIGHEST OVER NW AL) BECOMING LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) BY THE
EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. CLOUDS WILL HELP HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR
THURSDAY, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
A TROUGHING EAST, WEAK RIDGING WEST SETUP APPARENTLY WILL CONTINUE
AS WE GO INTO THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN GOING AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS OVERALL WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST
THEMSELVES IN THE LATE WEEK, MAINTAINING THE EASTERN TROUGH. THIS
OF COURSE WILL HELP KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT SAID, DAILY HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE
INTO THE LOWER TO AT TIMES MID 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S THU/FRI NIGHT, THEN IN THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND.
A MORE CHALLENGING ITEM IS HOW MUCH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS FURTHER OUT, WERE IN MORE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ONE ANOTHER. THUS STAYED WITH A ENSEMBLE AND
BLENDS APPROACH. NEW MODEL OUTPUT COMING IN WAS SHOWING THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AFTERWARDS, SHOWER
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSED MORE TO OUR SOUTH, AND ON A
DIURNAL TREND (HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON WERE IT
OCCURS). THUS AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS MOST OF THIS AREA SHOULD
STAY WITH A DRIER TREND OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO UNDER 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO BE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26
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