893
FXUS64 KHUN 270453
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD, WITH THE GENERAL ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH BEING
REINFORCED BY A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT WILL DIG SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BENEATH
WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OF 35-45 KNOTS (UNCHARACTERISTICALLY
STRONG FOR LATE AUGUST) WE ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF CIRROFORM CLOUDS,
WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME BROKEN-OVERCAST IN COVERAGE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX (EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH) BEGINS TO ADVANCE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED ACROSS THE
MO VALLEY EARLIER TODAY) WILL BUILD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER-OH VALLEY BY SUNRISE, BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG NNE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND VEER TO ENE AS THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. WITH DIURNAL MIXING OF DEWPOINTS INTO
THE U40S-L50S IN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLIER TODAY, OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50-55F RANGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION (PERHAPS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER, WHERE BRIEF
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 8-12Z). HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO VALUES OBSERVED TODAY, RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE U70S-M80S IN THE VALLEY.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LEE CYCLONE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CO LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW IS PREDICTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OK AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
TX THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL AL. IN RESPONSE TO THIS, AN ARC OF RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF KS/OK
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY) WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
EASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING INTO
THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS
REGIME MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN
(FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA) THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHICH IS WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BRIEFLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 1.2-1.4" RANGE. REGARDLESS OF
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY, OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS (55-60F) TOMORROW NIGHT, AND
COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS (75-80F) ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAPID DRYING OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
COLUMN ON THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A QUICK END
TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN (FROM N-TO-S) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT, THE INCREASINGLY ILL-
DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS) WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES, WITH NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE (IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW)
ADVECTING A DRIER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN, AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE UPPER-MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER, A MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM NW-TO-
SE ACROSS OUR REGION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
L-M 80S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY, WITH LOWS RISING
BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF SC/GA ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS AN AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA, A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
(EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE DEVELOPING LOW) MAY SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY/MONDAY, RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
(IF CAPE IS SUFFICIENT) DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BOTH
DAYS. AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW AND FOR
THIS REASON WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-20% RANGE. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED BY TUESDAY AS ITS
REMNANTS LIFT NORTHWESTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE U70S-L80S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE
M-U 80S IN THE VALLEY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE U50S-L60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING, AS VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS THRU
6Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE HIGH-LVL CLOUDS (WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG WNW FLOW ALOFT) AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW CU DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL WARMING
CYCLE. ALTHOUGH LGT NE-CALM WINDS MAY SUPPORT FORMATION OF PATCHY,
LGT BR/FG IN VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGE WATER SOURCES BTWN 8-12Z, WE
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS IN THE TAFS ATTM.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
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