962
FXUS64 KHUN 100858
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
358 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
EARLY MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-2 DEGREES. AS A RESULT,
SOME PATCHY FOG CAN BEEN SEEN IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND ALONG
BODIES OF WATER IN NE AL. AS OF 9Z, NO OBSERVATION SITES ARE
SHOWING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRENT THE NEED FOR A PRODUCT, BUT TAKE IT SLOW IF YOU
ENCOUNTER ANY ON YOUR DRIVE TO WORK THIS MORNING. SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, FOG SHOULD MIX OUT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD,
EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
(IN THE WAKE OF THE BROADER TROUGH TO ITS EAST) WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE
ADVANCING INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS
FEATURE MAY INSTIGATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTION (IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW
EVENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY, THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
NOT SURVIVE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WITH NNW
WINDS ALOFT PREDICTED TO INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE OVERNIGHT, IT IS AT LEAST SOMETHING TO MONITOR. A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE VORT MAX
DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS IN THE M50S-L60S WILL SUPPORT CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
(WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE M80S-L90S), A MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT THE VERTICAL GROWTH OF UPDRAFTS AND
OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING/THUNDER.
DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT, THE VORT MAX IS
PREDICTED TO DEEPEN INTO A PARTIALLY CLOSED LOW ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF NC/SC, INDUCING DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A LIGHT NE WIND WILL RESUME
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, AND THIS WILL YIELD A DRY FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE RETURN OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT OUR LATITUDE, WITH HIGHS CONTINUING IN
THE M80S-L90S THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE
U50S-L60S, BUT MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT IF DRIER
AIR MANAGES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATING FACTOR ON
WEATHER HERE LOCALLY WITH A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS PERSISTING INTO
NEXT WEEK. WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE, WE WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL TRANSITION MORE TO THE DRY HEAT. THANKFULLY, THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT
HEAT INDICES BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE TOO, DROPPING TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BUT
THANKFULLY NOT AS BAD AS THE HOT, MUGGY NIGHTS WE SAW NEARLY A
MONTH AGO. SO HANG IN THERE, SUMMER IS NOT OVER YET! REMEMBER TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING, AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THRU
6Z THURSDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH SCT HIGH-BASED CU THROUGHOUT THE DAY (PERHAPS
BECOMING BROKEN IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD). AND, ALTHOUGH
PATCHY BR/FG MAY DEVELOP IN LOCAL VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGE BODIES OF
WATER THROUGH SUNRISE, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT EITHER HSV OR MSL. A LIGHT SE WIND WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTN, BEFORE BECOMING LGT/VRBL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...70
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