195
FXUS64 KHUN 111936
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
236 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS OCCURRING SO FAR. STILL HAVE THE LOW CHANCE (15-20%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE VORT MAX PUSHING ITS WAY
THROUGH, HOWEVER THOSE WILL WEAN WITH SUNSET. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR MICROBURST WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, AFTER THE SUN SETS, CU FIELD SHOULD
LESSEN, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE, IF WE ARE ABLE TO PROFICIENTLY COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT, PATCHY
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S
WHICH IS SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN
ITS WAKE, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WE LOOK
TO REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING PLACING US
SOLIDLY WITHIN NNE FLOW THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THIS NE FLOW WILL CONTAIN HIGHER DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE
TO THE GULF COAST KEEPING OUR DEW POINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S. THIS WILL BE OF BENEFIT TO US LOCALLY AS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPERATURES ENTER A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM FROM THE HIGH
80S TO LOW 90S ON FRIDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY SUNDAY.
FORTUNATELY WITH THE LOW DEW POINTS THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES
WELL BELOW 100 AND NEGATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT PRODUCTS. EVEN SO,
TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER
(NORMAL BEING 86-88 DEGREES). PLEASE MAKE SURE TO CONTINUE TO
PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE PARTAKING IN
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
FORECAST DATA FROM THE LATEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS
THAT A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH ACROSS TX WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, A SLOW-MOVING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW BUT AMPLIFIED 500-MB RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS IS PREDICTED TO
BE ORIENTED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, IT WILL EFFECTIVELY DEFLECT
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION (ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL
SMALLER SCALE WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH),
WITH ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND GENERAL LACK OF CLOUDS CONTRIBUTING
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/DRY WEATHER. HIGHS EACH DAY FROM
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE U80S-L90S/E TO L-M 90S/W, BUT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-L60S, HI VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR ONLY A
DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE L-M 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE, 10-20%, OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAF AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE, BUT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY W TO NW TODAY BEFORE VEERING TO BE NE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...JMS
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