455
FXUS64 KHUN 140505
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1205 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN TEXAS CONTROLLED THE AREA'S SENSIBLE WEATHER. AFTER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S, 9 PM TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED. A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S. DESPITE THE DAY BEING SUNNY AND DRY, NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG THAT
FORMS SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY, AND AFFECT THOSE NORMALLY FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS, LIKE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
HOWEVER WILL BE AMPLIFYING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS EARLY SEASON
NOR'EASTER TYPE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AS WE
GO INTO THE NEW WEEK. A TROUGHING EAST AND RIDGING SETUP JUST TO
THE WEST OF IT, WILL PLACE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN A NORTHERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW. WITH A BROAD SURFACE HIGH LAYERED TO THE SW FROM
THE APPALACHIANS, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, A WARM START TO THE WEEK IS
EXPECTED, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO
LOWER 90S WEST. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM THE EAST COAST SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST, SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM
MODELS ARE HINTING AT HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS OVER THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WE
MAY ADD LOWER END RAIN CHANCES FOR SOME OF THE AREA SUNDAY, SHOULD
THE BLENDS GO THAT WAY IN ITS 10 PM RUN.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK, A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE. IMPACTS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL PORTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY, MAINTAINING THIS STAGE AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD
OVER VIRGINIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NAM WAS HINTING AT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WERE DRIER (BUT NOT ZERO POPS). SO
WILL KEEP A LESS THAN 15% CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT SLIM POSSIBILITY.
STAYING WITH A DRIER FORECAST, DECENT LATE SUMMERTIME HEATING
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PRODUCE MORE VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MON/TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST. LOWS SUN/MON NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUED TO GO ON A DRIER TREND AS WE GO
INTO THE MID WEEK. THE EAST COAST SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN
WEAKENING OVER VIRGINIA AS WE GO INTO THE LATE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, AS A MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ASHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW EARLY IN THE WEEK, SHOULD BE NEARING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE TIME WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA, AND BRING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI/SAT. TIMING SPREADS
FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS BECOMING MORE APPARENT, THUS
WILL STAY WITH AN ENSEMBLE OR BLEND APPROACH TO CLOSE OUT NEXT
WEEK.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WED/THU/FRI/SAT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
80S TO LOW/MID 90S WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN COOLING A TAD LATE NEXT WEEK AS
MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE APPARENT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT GIVEN THE DRIER AIR
IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25
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