906
FXUS64 KHUN 141123
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING
AROUND 3AM. A DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD BE SEEN TRACKING
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN KY AND MAY EVENTUALLY BRING RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE A BIT ON COVERAGE, BUT POPS MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UPWARD THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS LATER THIS
EVENING. CURRENT TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF FOG AT THE CURRENT TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THE OVERNIGHT UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN TEXAS CONTROLLED THE AREA'S SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. A COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S. DESPITE THE DAY
BEING SUNNY AND DRY, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DEWPOINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S COULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD REMAIN
PATCHY, AND AFFECT THOSE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS, LIKE
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
HOWEVER WILL BE AMPLIFYING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS EARLY SEASON
NOR'EASTER TYPE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AS WE
GO INTO THE NEW WEEK. A TROUGHING EAST AND RIDGING SETUP JUST TO
THE WEST OF IT, WILL PLACE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN A NORTHERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW. WITH A BROAD SURFACE HIGH LAYERED TO THE SW FROM
THE APPALACHIANS, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, A WARM START TO THE WEEK IS
EXPECTED, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO
LOWER 90S WEST. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION FROM THE EAST COAST SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST, SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM
MODELS ARE HINTING AT HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS OVER THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WE
MAY ADD LOWER END RAIN CHANCES FOR SOME OF THE AREA SUNDAY, SHOULD
THE BLENDS GO THAT WAY IN ITS 10 PM RUN.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK, A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE. IMPACTS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL PORTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY, MAINTAINING THIS STAGE AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD
OVER VIRGINIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NAM WAS HINTING AT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WERE DRIER (BUT NOT ZERO POPS). SO
WILL KEEP A LESS THAN 15% CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT SLIM POSSIBILITY.
STAYING WITH A DRIER FORECAST, DECENT LATE SUMMERTIME HEATING
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PRODUCE MORE VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MON/TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST. LOWS SUN/MON NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUED TO GO ON A DRIER TREND AS WE GO
INTO THE MID WEEK. THE EAST COAST SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN
WEAKENING OVER VIRGINIA AS WE GO INTO THE LATE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, AS A MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ASHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW EARLY IN THE WEEK, SHOULD BE NEARING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE TIME WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA, AND BRING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI/SAT. TIMING SPREADS
FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS BECOMING MORE APPARENT, THUS
WILL STAY WITH AN ENSEMBLE OR BLEND APPROACH TO CLOSE OUT NEXT
WEEK.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WED/THU/FRI/SAT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
80S TO LOW/MID 90S WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN COOLING A TAD LATE NEXT WEEK AS
MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE APPARENT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT/VAR
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25
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