374
FXUS64 KHUN 141504
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1004 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
OFF OF CURRENT (9 AM) SATELLITE AND RADAR A FEW AREAS OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS DIFFERS A
DECENT AMOUNT FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DRY FORECAST AND THUS OUR TODAYS
FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE MORE INVOLVED THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. A
SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS INTO THE AREA TO SUPPORT THIS.
THESE HIGHER PWATS AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL SUPPORT
A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. CAMS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REPRESENT THIS LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. WE WILL LIKELY REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS (~90 F) BY
MID AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY
PASSES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED V
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING THE RISK FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
WEST WHERE TEMPS AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE GREATEST.
WITH SUN SET COVERAGE WILL LIKELY WANE WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF WE CLEAR OUT, FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED ANY RAIN TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WE WILL FIND OURSELF SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
WEAKENING TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR WEST. IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFORMENTIONED PASSING SHORT WAVE, ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE TN VALLEY TO SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS, HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS BUILDING INTO THE HIGH
80S TO LOW 90. THANKFULLY, TEMPS HAVE TENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
SO WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER, THE HEAT
WILL NOT BE AS UNBEARABLE. ADDITIONALLY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONFINING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW 100 DESPITE
TEMPS IN THE 90S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUED TO GO ON A DRIER TREND AS WE GO
INTO THE MID WEEK. THE EAST COAST SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN
WEAKENING OVER VIRGINIA AS WE GO INTO THE LATE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, AS A MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ASHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW EARLY IN THE WEEK, SHOULD BE NEARING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE TIME WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA, AND BRING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI/SAT. TIMING SPREADS
FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS BECOMING MORE APPARENT, THUS
WILL STAY WITH AN ENSEMBLE OR BLEND APPROACH TO CLOSE OUT NEXT
WEEK.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WED/THU/FRI/SAT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
80S TO LOW/MID 90S WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN COOLING A TAD LATE NEXT WEEK AS
MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE APPARENT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT/VAR
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page