712
FXUS64 KHUN 142329
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
629 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL,
EASTERN AR, AND WESTERN TN MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ATTEMPT TO MOVE
INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AND MORE MODEST
ML/SBCAPE SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS
THAT DO MOVE IN. WHILE A LOCALIZED BURST OF GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THESE STORMS, THINK THIS ACTIVITY (IF IT EVEN CAN
MOVE IN) WILL BE SUB-SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE
SETTING SUN AND THE END RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT.
IN THIS DRY AIR MASS, ANOTHER GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW MID 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WE WILL FIND OURSELF SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
WEAKENING TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR WEST. IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFORMENTIONED PASSING SHORT WAVE, ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE TN VALLEY TO SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS, HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS BUILDING INTO THE HIGH
80S TO LOW 90. THANKFULLY, TEMPS HAVE TENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
SO WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER, THE HEAT
WILL NOT BE AS UNBEARABLE. ADDITIONALLY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONFINING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW 100 DESPITE
TEMPS IN THE 90S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUED TO GO ON A DRIER TREND AS WE GO
INTO THE MID WEEK. THE EAST COAST SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN
WEAKENING OVER VIRGINIA AS WE GO INTO THE LATE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, AS A MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ASHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW EARLY IN THE WEEK, SHOULD BE NEARING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE TIME WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA, AND BRING
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI/SAT. TIMING SPREADS
FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS BECOMING MORE APPARENT, THUS
WILL STAY WITH AN ENSEMBLE OR BLEND APPROACH TO CLOSE OUT NEXT
WEEK.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WED/THU/FRI/SAT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
80S TO LOW/MID 90S WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN COOLING A TAD LATE NEXT WEEK AS
MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE APPARENT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AT KMSL BETWEEN 06-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...JMS
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