507
FXUS64 KHUN 150230
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW CHANCE (15-20%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NW AL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL FEW/SCT CLOUD COVER AND HELP
KEEP LOWS A LITTLE WARMER ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, REACHING THE UPPER
60S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THIS WEEK WE WILL START OFF WITH AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BEING SQUEEZED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES TRIES TO SLIDE EASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE GLIDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FLOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON COULD BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS, OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO MID
WEEK AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER, WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR IF DISTURBANCES FROM THE COASTAL LOW ENCROACH CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE TN VALLEY TO POP A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR THIS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BUT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES. REGARDLESS, STAY
SAFE IN THE HEAT BY TAKING BREAKS, STAYING HYDRATED AND NEVER
LEAVING PEOPLE OR PETS IN VEHICLES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THURSDAY,
BUT LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE OTHER TROUGH IN THE BLOCKING PATTERN SLIDES
INTO THE PLAINS. ITS SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THIS
TIME, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TN
VALLEY BUT STAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THEY WILL
COOL A TAD ON SATURDAY, REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AT KMSL BETWEEN 06-12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...JMS
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