523
FXUS64 KHUN 151802
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
102 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
BRINGING 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF NW AL EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED, HOWEVER, CAMS ARE HINTING
AT SOME SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE, HAVE
INCREASED POPS TODAY TO 10% AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THROUGH THE WEEK, WE WILL REMAIN IN A BLOCKING PATTERN AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST COUPLED WITH A RIDGE
CONTINUING TO STRETCH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AS THIS CONTINUES,
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WHILE
HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S,
ACTION SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN TO MITIGATE HEAT EXHAUSTION. BE SURE
TO STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING OUTDOORS, AND
NEVER LEAVE ANY PETS OR PEOPLE IN VEHICLES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THURSDAY,
BUT LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE OTHER TROUGH IN THE BLOCKING PATTERN SLIDES
INTO THE PLAINS. ITS SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THIS
TIME, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE TN
VALLEY BUT STAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THEY WILL
COOL A TAD ON SATURDAY, REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD, FEATURING FEW-SCT HIGH-
BASED CU (IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER) BENEATH A GRADUALLY INCREASING
COVERAGE OF CI AND A LGT/VRBL-LIGHT SSE WIND. ALTHOUGH RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS (WHICH IMPACTED MSL EARLIER THIS MORNING) HAVE SINCE
SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD, REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION (ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SAME UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE) MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED WEST OF THE AL-
MS BORDER. ANOTHER SIMILAR DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRAVEL IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC, AND
MAY INITIATE A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND
MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR TSRA WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE TERMINALS AGAIN
UNTIL TUE AFTN, AND FOR THIS REASON WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS ATTM.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...70/DD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page