219
FXUS64 KHUN 031904
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
204 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.
- 20-30% CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK
BUT HAVE ACHIEVED AS MUCH AT KMSL AND KHSV, BOTH CURRENTLY SITTING
AT 81 DEGREES. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME SCATTERED CU AND HIGH
STRATUS STREAMING NORTH FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY AND COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. NO MAJOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED
DURING THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OFF THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY BUT THE EFFECTS OF CAD WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. AT OF 10AM,
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S WITH UPPER 70S HIGHS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY POTENTIAL IMPACT WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, BUT THIS
SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH WHERE CAD EFFECTS ARE MORE
MINIMAL.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 80S ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF ON SUNDAY AND
GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS TAKES PLACE. WE SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20MPH MAY BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER
FOR THOSE THAT HAVE ANY PLANS OUTDOORS ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, PLACING THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SOME LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, MODEL DISAGREEMENT REMAINS
PERSISTENT AND THEREFORE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THESE RAIN
CHANCES MATERIALIZING AT THIS TIME. IF THERE IS ANY INTEREST IN
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES NEXT WEEK, BE SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR DETAILS AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD
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