034
FXUS64 KHUN 040454
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1154 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE SPANNED MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH A
RIDGE AXIS POINTED FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH AL AND TN. THIS
ALLOWED DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, A 5H LOW WAS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST,
SPREADING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH AL INTO AND EAST
TN. THUS, AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
ON SATURDAY, THE 5H LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE ON SATURDAY WITH THE
SURFACE AND 8H RIDGES WILL PIVOT JUST A BIT VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW
JUST A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY BRING DEW POINTS A BIT
HIGHER LATE IN THE DAY, BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
ON SUNDAY, THE 5H LOW BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND BECOME LESS
IDENTIFIABLE AS A CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SOUTHEAST FLOW
IN LOW LEVELS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH SOUTH AL INTO MS, EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD AND
BLENDING WITH THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5H. THIS
BRINGS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MS INTO WEST
TN, AND PERHAPS FAR WEST AL. THUS, LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST AL ON MONDAY CLOSER TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
ON THE BIG PICTURE, A TROUGHING-WEST/RIDGING-EAST UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER-48 INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEXT MON/TUE, THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE INTO A ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS,
THE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
MON/TUE NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 60S, WHILE HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOW/MID 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AROUND OCTOBER 7TH, NORMAL
HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 80/56 DEGREES.
A STEADY ESE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF REGIONS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE NEW WEEK.
THIS MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A RETURN OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
THUS, A DIURNAL TREND FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, EXTENDED GUIDANCE WAS DEPICTING
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, WITH LOWER END
SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD END
IN THE EVENING AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. HIGHS
ON WED SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, GRADUALLY
COOLING TO JUST THE 70S (WARMER WEST, COOLER WEST) BY FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO UPPER 50S/MID 60S, THEN
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 BY THU NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN
5-10 KNOTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DIMINISH BACK TO
UNDER 5 KNOTS IN THE EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26
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