295
FXUS64 KHUN 042346
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO NOTE FOR THE NEAR TERM UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA AS A RESULT FROM THE DECAYING UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER IN THESE LOCATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ATTACHED BELOW.
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL START TO THIS EARLY OCTOBER SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT THIS
HOUR. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ABOUND THIS MORNING THANKS
TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ANCHORED OVER THE VIRGINIAS, AND
MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD AS IT
DISSIPATES AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY AN INCOMING TROF TO THE WEST
TOMORROW. AS SUCH, A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TO THE S
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF FROM THE W.
THIS WILL HELP SPARK SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTER INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON MONDAY (20-30%),
BUT WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY (30-40%) AS THE FRONT NEARS FROM THE
NW. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW (~10%) SO FOR NOW,
THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED WITH THIS UPDATE CYCLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT MEANDERING THROUGH THE AREA, HENCE
THE BACK AND FORTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. STAY TUNED AS
FURTHER DETAILS ARE HONED IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS HEADING INTO
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80-85F RANGE, WITH MORNING LOWS
IN THE 60-65F RANGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
ON WEDNESDAY, EXTENDED GUIDANCE WAS DEPICTING A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, WITH LOWER END SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD END IN THE EVENING
AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. HIGHS ON WED SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, GRADUALLY COOLING TO JUST
THE 70S (WARMER WEST, COOLER WEST) BY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WED
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO UPPER 50S/MID 60S, THEN MID 50S TO AROUND
60 BY THU NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH PATCHES OF VIRGA WILL
BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA), CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AT THE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER, AS A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION, A MINOR INCREASE IN HIGH-BASED
STRATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIST/FOG FORMATION APPEARS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT, BUT A FEW
VSBY REDUCTIONS COULD OCCUR IN WIND-SHELTERED LOCATIONS BTWN
8-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS (FEATURING SCT CU AND BKN CS) WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ESE FLOW EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE 12G20 KNOT RANGE BY 15Z. ALTHOUGH
GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
FOCUSED TO THE S/E OF HSV AND WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN
THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...70/DD
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