509
FXUS64 KHUN 050338
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1038 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A TROUGHING WEST AND RIDGING EAST UPPER PATTERN CONTINUED OVER THE
GREATER CONUS. EVEN WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING SOUTH OF AL/FL WAS
SPREADING CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE SE STATES, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
(MAINLY OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA). MORE INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST
(SAY BIRMINGHAM AND NORTHWARD), IT WAS TOO DRY IN THE LOW/MID
TROPOSPHERE TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. THIS COULD
CHANGE LATER DURING SUNDAY, AS MORE OF THIS MOISTURE SEEPS FURTHER
INLAND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO FORM SOUTH OF THE
TX/LA COAST SHOULD REMAIN OVER THAT PORTION OF THE GULF INTO LATE
SUNDAY.
FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER DRY AND COOL/MILD PERIOD IS EXPECTED. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE
LOW/MID 60S WITH ESE WINDS OF 5-10 MPH, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES. A RETURN OF MORE HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S, WITH SE WINDS OF 5-15 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY SHOULD SLOWLY CREEP
INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART WERE
SUGGESTING THAT LOWER END CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURNS SOMETIME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND FV3 WERE RATHER SKIMPY
WITH RAIN COVERAGE. THE NEW NBM RUN HAS KEPT SIMILAR COVERAGE
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...RATHER MILD NIGHT TIME CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
DESPITE CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND INTO THE
LOW/MID 80S TUESDAY. THESE VALUES MAY BE A BIT LOWER IF CHANCES OF
SHOWER COVERAGE BECOMES GREATER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOW OVER THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY
BUILD TO THE SW DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. TROUGHING
THAT WAS PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AND MOVE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY THE MID
WEEK. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER-48 TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW LATE
TUESDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-30%), HIGHS TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MID WEEK SHOULD BE A TAD COOLER INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. A BIT COOLER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50 AND LOWER
60S. AN AIRMASS CHANGE WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LIMITED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION, WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ON THE LOW
SIDE. FOR THE THU-SAT TIMEFRAME, SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH FRI/SAT TRENDING DRY AND WORSEN THE ON-
GOING DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH PATCHES OF VIRGA WILL
BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA), CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AT THE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER, AS A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION, A MINOR INCREASE IN HIGH-BASED
STRATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIST/FOG FORMATION APPEARS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT, BUT A FEW
VSBY REDUCTIONS COULD OCCUR IN WIND-SHELTERED LOCATIONS BTWN
8-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS (FEATURING SCT CU AND BKN CS) WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ESE FLOW EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE 12G20 KNOT RANGE BY 15Z. ALTHOUGH
GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
FOCUSED TO THE S/E OF HSV AND WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN
THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...70/DD
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